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Quantitative Estimation of the Impact of Random Confounding Factors on the Duration and Cost of Construction Works Cover

Quantitative Estimation of the Impact of Random Confounding Factors on the Duration and Cost of Construction Works

Open Access
|May 2020

Abstract

Random events may interfere with the execution process and results of the work. Then, the duration and cost of work are random variables. The random characteristics of these variables are described by using the β-PERT probability distribution and the simplified formulas. To determine the probable changes of the duration and cost of work, depending on the random factors, the coefficients of optimism and pessimism have been used. Additionally, the coefficients of improvement and deterioration of conditions of work implementation have been introduced. The values of these coefficients are calculated depending on the type, the probability of occurrence, the intensity of random perturbations and depending on the probable changes of the work duration as well as the probability and cost consequences of the price increase. Extreme random improvement and deterioration of the work execution conditions are analysed.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.4467/2353737XCT.17.130.6881 | Journal eISSN: 2353-737X | Journal ISSN: 0011-4561
Language: English
Page range: 73 - 79
Published on: May 26, 2020
Published by: Cracow University of Technology
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Publication frequency: 1 issue per year

© 2020 Tadeusz Kasprowicz, published by Cracow University of Technology
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 License.