Analyzing Trends in Technical Efficiency of Paddy Production in Sri Lanka (2004 -2019)

This study evaluates the technical efficiency (TE) of paddy production in Sri Lanka over a 16-year period (2004–2019) using an extensive cost of cultivation dataset from seven major paddy-producing regions, providing one of the most comprehensive regional assessments to date. Stochastic Frontier Analysis revealed notable regional variations in TE, with a generally improving trend over the study period. The estimated input elasticities indicate that urea (0.15), triple superphosphate (TSP) (0.11), and labour (0.1) positively influence output, underscoring the role of balanced nutrient application and timely labour allocation. The significant and positive interaction term between urea and TSP (0.04) highlights the productivity gains from coordinated fertilizer management, while the squared term for urea shows diminishing marginal returns from excessive application. These findings suggest that productivity improvements are closely linked to the efficiency of input use and complementary application strategies. Although TE has increased over time, the analysis does not establish a direct causal relationship between current agricultural support mechanisms and the observed improvements, and such inferences require dedicated causal research. The results emphasise the importance of identifying region-specific drivers of TE, considering agro-ecological conditions, input price dynamics, and farm management practices. Future research integrating climatic, soil quality, and farmer behavioural variables with longitudinal datasets could provide a more complete understanding of efficiency determinants. Such evidence would strengthen the basis for developing targeted and sustainable agricultural policies aimed at enhancing productivity while ensuring resource efficiency in paddy cultivation across diverse production environments in Sri Lanka.