A time series analysis of the number of female examinees in matriculation / HSLC examination in Assam (India) since 1951 and its comparison with male counterpart

Completed secondary education of females plays a significant role in generating the opportunities and benefits of social and economic development. Therefore the knowledge of growth pattern of the number of female examinees in Matriculation / HSLC examination as an indicator of completion of secondary stage of education for effective budget and program planning is the need of the hour. Since independence, in Assam, a north-eastern state of India, the proportion of female examinees is increasing every year surpassing the number male examinees. The objective of the present study is to identify and fit a suitable time series model and forecast the number of female and male examinees both, using data for the period 1951-2015. Structural approach to analysis of time series data is adopted to construct several models, eliminating inappropriate ones and keeping the most suitable model. The selected models are validated in terms of its structure and forecasting accuracy. Our findings suggest that the ARIMA (1, 1, 0) and ARIMA (2, 1, 0) model as the best suited for forecasting of female and male examinees even when the outliers are detected and substituted through linear interpolation.

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