Sri Lanka is on the Verge of Entering Ultra-Low Fertility: Estimating Total Fertility Rate Through an Alternative Method Validation with South Korea

Introduction: The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of Sri Lanka has been unavailable since 2016, when the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) reported a TFR of 2.2 live births per woman. Estimating TFR for the period 2016–2024 is crucial, particularly from a sexual and reproductive health (SRH) perspective, given the possible impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and economic crisis on fertility behaviour.

Objectives: First, it aims to assess the validity of an alternative method by comparing its TFR estimates for South Korea with those obtained through the standard technique. Second, based on the demonstrated validity of the two sets of estimates for South Korea, the alternative method is applied to estimate the TFR of Sri Lanka. Further the analysis explores the broader demographic and socio-economic implications of fertility change.

Methods: Initially, the alternative method is applied to estimate the TFR for South Korea, a country with up-to-date statistics. These estimates are the compared with standard TFR figures to assess the method’s validity. Upon confirming a high degree of validity between the two sets of estimates, the alternative method is used to estimate the TFR for Sri Lanka.

Results: Sri Lanka’s TFR fell below replacement level by 2016 and has continued to decline, reaching an estimated 1.4 in 2023 and 1.3 in 2024. These figures indicate that the country is on the verge of entering an ultra-low fertility regime, typically defined as a TFR below 1.3. Sri Lanka began experiencing population decline from 2022, when the total population peaked at 22.1 million. This demographic shift is primarily driven by a sharp decline in natural increase and a substantial net out-migration rate between 2022 and 2024.

Conclusion: Sri Lanka’s transition toward ultra-low fertility has significant macro-level implications, including a rapidly ageing population, a shrinking labour force, and mounting pressure on healthcare and social protection. These trends underscore the urgent need for evidence-based policy interventions to stabilize/reverse fertility levels.