A Bayesian Belief Network to evaluate issues in producing higher grades of sheet rubber by smallholder farmers in Kalutara district

Meager production of higher quality sheet rubber is an issue which has implications on the smallholder’s income as well as on the rubber products industry in the country. Although, this problem has been there for some time, it is increasingly becoming grave in the face of a vibrant rubber products manufacturing industry. However, no systematic study is found on this issue of production of higher grades partly because it is a smallholder’s problem. We take up this issue from a policy perspective using a Bayesian Belief Network, which provide us with a visual output understood by laymen in the hope that findings would be beneficial to many. We find three key reasons for the lackluster performance in the production of sheet rubber in the highest quality: the lack of physical capital, lack of a proper grading system and lack of cleanliness in production. We discuss these issues at length.