Influence of climate change on the geographic distribution of forest fires and their potential scale in Sri Lanka

Forest fires pose a significant threat to the conservation of forest resources in Sri Lanka. Forest fire modeling is a novel technique to study and predict the behavior of forest fires. This study utilizes simulation techniques to investigate the relationship between forest fire occurrence and climate change particularly in the dry zone of Sri Lanka. The frequency and duration of phenomena such as sea current oscillation El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) change due to climate change, can create extreme dry conditions that increase the risk of intensified fires, especially in the dry zone of Sri Lanka. To assess fire vulnerability under prevailing weather conditions and projected climate change scenarios, the FConstMTT simulation algorithm was used with 1,000 iterations per scenario. In this analysis forest types across Sri Lanka were classified into six classes based on elevation, rainfall, and fuel characteristics. Customized fuel models were created using BehavePlus and spatial data was processed through the ArcFuel extension of ArcGIS. The results indicate that under projected climate scenarios, fire hazards in the dry zone particularly in the districts of Mullaitivu, Monaragala, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, and Badulla, are likely to worsen in the future. In the climate change scenarios, Monaragala district accounted for approximately 53% of total fire damage, with Badulla district showing a significant baseline vulnerability. Anuradhapura district also showed significant levels of fire vulnerability under the projected climate change conditions. Based on fire frequency and intensity, the 25 administrative districts in Sri Lanka were categorized into high, moderate, and low-risk areas. Forest types such as dry monsoon forests, shrublands, open forests, and savannahs are particularly vulnerable under the predicted climate change scenarios.