Price Behavior of Selected Marine Fish Species in Colombo Market Sri Lanka

In Sri Lanka, fish provide about 50% of the animal protein consumed, which is nearly three times the global average. The country’s fisheries, including marine, inland, and aquaculture sectors, play an important role in food security and livelihoods. However, significant price fluctuations have impacted stakeholders such as fishers, traders, and consumers. This study analyzes price trends and seasonal patterns of six selected fish species (large pelagic and small pelagic) consumed by Sri Lankans, which are commonly available in the Colombo market. Monthly retail prices from January 2014 to December 2024, obtained from the Hector Kobbekaduwa Agrarian Research and Training Institute, were used to develop a forecasting model for better market insights. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test confirmed that the first-order differenced real price series were stationary. Accordingly, the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models were used for analysis. Results show an upward trend in nominal prices, mainly due to inflation; however, real prices remain stable over time. Seasonal price index values indicate variations in the monthly average real prices of different fish species.  According to the findings, SARIMA models provided a better fit for species with seasonal patterns, while ARIMA models were sufficient for non-seasonal species, and residual analyses confirmed that most models adequately captured the data for forecasting purposes. The findings underscore the role of external economic and environmental factors such as inflation, supply chain disruptions, and weather patterns in shaping fish prices. The findings highlight the need for price stabilization and continuous market monitoring mechanisms to enhance affordability and value chain improvement in the sector.