Rice pinch to war thrown nation: an overview of the rice supply chain of Sri Lanka and the consumer attitudes on government rice risk management

Rice is staple for 2 million people in war thrown nation devastated by tsunami. This is the second year running in which production increased in real terms through out past has failed to keep pace with population growth. The harvest has also been hit by floods and unusual wet weather. Time series forecasting analysis based on the secondary data was carried out to identify the past, present and future trends of rice production, prices and self sufficiency level. Focus group discussions and field observations used to construct the rice trading pattern. Primary data on consumer attitudes on government rice risk management obtained through the field survey. The study locations include both major rice growing areas (Hambantota, Anuradhapura and Pollonnnaruwa) as well as important consumer hubs (Colombo, Ratnapura, Galle, Matara and Hambantota). Cultivated and harvested land extends and yield have positive increasing trend while simple time series modeler explains the increasing trend of retail prices. Private sector is playing a very important role in rice marketing channel where government intervention is minimal. Behavior of the rice processors has direct impact on the availability of rice and the pricing in dome market. Consumers have negative attitudes on government rice risk management and they are not confident on state intervention.

Key words: Rice; Sri Lanka; time series forecasting; consumer attitudes.

DOI: 10.4038/jas.v4i2.1647

The Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 2009, vol. 4, no. 2 pp.77-96