Chickpea Price Dynamics in Maharashtra: Evidence from Seasonal Indices, Cointegration and ARIMA Forecasting

Purpose: Chickpea (Cicer arietinum L.) is a vital pulse crop in India, contributing 46.62% to the nation’s pulse production. This study was to analyse the seasonal behaviour, price trends, and market integration of chickpea across major Agricultural Produce Market Committees in Maharashtra.
Research Method: Secondary data for monthly arrivals and prices of chickpea were analyzed over years 2005-06 to 2022-23 to capture both short- and long-term fluctuations in chickpea arrivals and prices in Maharashtra. Seasonal indices were estimated by using the moving average method, while ARIMA models were applied for price forecasting. Model adequacy was validated through accuracy measures such as RMSE and MAPE to ensure reliable forecasts. For market integration, Johansen multiple co-integration trace tests were employed while pairwise Granger causality tests were conducted with diagnostic checks to ensure robustness of causal inference.
Findings and Values: Seasonal indices revealed a peak in chickpea arrivals during February to April, coinciding with post-rabi harvest, and a reverse trend in prices, which were highest during July to October. The price forecasting, showing reliable performance with projected price peaks in winter due to reduced market inflow. Johansen co-integration tests confirmed a long-run equilibrium relationship among prices in Latur, Daryapur, Hinganghat, Amravati, and Nagpur markets, indicating strong market integration. Both bidirectional and unidirectional price linkages, with Latur, Hinganghat, and Nagpur emerging as key price-leading markets. The findings highlight the importance of market intelligence in stabilizing prices and enhancing farmers’ income through efficient marketing, thereby reducing volatility and promoting sustainable growth of the agricultural sector.