Projected Food-grain Production and Yield in India: An Evidence from Statewise Panel Data Investigation during 1977-2014

Purpose : This study examines the impact of climatic change on food-grain production and yield using state-wise panel data during 1977-2014 in fifteen Indian states. Accordingly, it estimates the projected food-grain production and yield by the years of 2040, 2040, 2060, 2080 and 2100. Finally, it provides the effective practical and effective policy suggestions to reduce the climate change impact on food-grain farming based on existing studies.

Research Method : Regression coefficients of food-grain production and yield with climatic and non-climatic factors are estimated using Cobb-Douglas production function model. Marginal impact analysis method is used to examine the projected food-grain production and yield.

Findings : Empirical results infer that most climatic factors have a negative impact on food-grain production and yield in different weather seasons. Projected results are suggested that food-grain production is expected to be declined by 5.25%, 6.64%, 8.03% and 9.57% by 2040, 2060, 2080 and 2100 respectively. Food-grain yield is likely to be decreased by 1.05%, 1.96%, 2.87% and 5.07% by the aforesaid years.

Research Limitations : This study could not capture impact of inter-states disparities in socio-economic condition of farmers, geographical conditions, agriculture policies and public spending on agriculture and rural development on food-grain production and yield. It also could not include factors such as solar radiation, sun intensity, wind speed and heat wave in empirical investigation.

Originality/ Value : It compiles state-wise panel of food-grain production and yield as dependent variables, and climatic variables and non-climatic factors as explanatory variables during 1977-2014. It examines the projected food-grain production and yield.