Development of a model for prediction of solar radiation

Power generation from renewable energy sources such as wind, mini-hydro, solar etc is becoming increasingly popular due to environmental concerns. However, it is not possible to predict the energy generation of solar power plants in advance. Hence the power system operator has no information about the tomorrow’s possible energy availability from these non-dispatchable power plants. The outcome of this study enables the system operator to predict the possible energy generation from solar power plants based on the weather forecasts and provide the system operator with predictions on energy generation and capacity of solar power plants connected to the grid. The predictions will enable to prepare the dispatch schedules accordingly.

In this study, the effect of the geographical and meteorological parameters for predicting daily global solar radiation at Sooriyawewa, Hambantota in Sri Lanka is investigated. A multiple linear regression was applied to explain the relationship among solar radiation and identified meteorological and geographical parameters such as cloud cover, sunshine duration, precipitation, open air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, gust speed and sine value of declination angle. Variables in these equations were used to estimate the global solar radiation. Values calculated/predicted from models were compared with the actual measurements to validate the model.

ENGINEER, Vol. 48, No.03, pp. 19-25 2015