Forecasting Thermal Stratification of the Victoria Reservoir using a Hydrodynamic Model

Strong thermal stratification in a reservoir may result in oxygen depletion along the vertical profile downwards leading to its eutrophication. The paper is an investigation of thermal stratification behaviour of the Victoria reservoir in Sri Lanka, which experienced several water quality linked problems in the past. A one-dimensional reservoir hydrodynamics model is calibrated and validated for the Victoria reservoir. The calibration and validation are strengthened by calculating several goodness-of-fit statistics. The study further shows the possibility to change the strong thermal stratification of the Victoria reservoir by manipulating the releases from it. The model that ensures a reasonable prediction of thermal stratification enables taking precautionary measures to avoid adverse reservoir water quality conditions.