Decision-making dynamics of evacuation centre choice: A case study in Rathnapura District, Sri Lanka

Disasters often result in displacement, requiring affected populations to relocate to evacuation centres. The effectiveness of evacuation centres is important in mitigating disaster impacts and ensuring coordinated emergency response. In Sri Lanka, increasing flood frequency and landslides have underscored the urgent need to strengthen disaster preparedness and evacuation planning. Rathnapura district, in Sabaragamuwa province, is highly vulnerable to recurrent flooding and presents significant challenges in managing evacuation processes and disaster response mechanisms. During major flood events, affected individuals must decide to relocate, and the choice of evacuation centre is influenced by various factors such as centre accessibility, centre capacity with the available facilities, and evacuees’ past experiences. This study focuses on identifying the factors influencing individuals’ decisions to choose evacuation centres during floods. The multinomial logit (MNL) modelling approach was employed as the estimation tool to explore the evacuation behaviour and decision-making parameters. Data collected through structured interviews with flood-affected residents, focusing on variables such as demographic characteristics, perceived risk levels, prior disaster exposure, features of evacuation centres, and levels of trust in disaster management.  Public places, schools/religious places, relatives’ and friends’ places were identified as mostly used shelters by flood victims. Estimated parameters clearly indicate that relatives’ and friends’ places are the most preferred evacuation centres, underscoring the strong influence of social networks, familiarity, and trust in shelter selection. Public shelters, temples/religious places, and schools were given nearly equal priority. Estimation results revealed that distance from home to evacuation centre and travel time are the most influential parameters shaping evacuee decisions, followed by the centre capacity. Findings provide important implications for improving disaster management frameworks in flood-prone regions by strengthening the operational capacity of centres, building greater trust between communities and authorities, and refining risk communication strategies to provide better support for timely evacuations.