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Statistical adjoint sensitivity distributions of meteorological forecast errors of Asian dust transport events in Korea Cover

Statistical adjoint sensitivity distributions of meteorological forecast errors of Asian dust transport events in Korea

Open Access
|Jan 2013

Figures & Tables

Fig. 1

Asian dust monitoring stations over Asian dust source regions operated by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) since 2005 (○) and 2007 () and by the CMA (▵), Asian dust monitoring tower (▴), and four domestic observational sites operated by the KMA (▪). Only four representative observational sites in Korea are shown.

Fig. 2

The model domain for this study. The box over the Korean Peninsula denotes the area where a response function was defined.

Table 1. Asian dust events that affected the Korean Peninsula from 2005 to 2010

No.Occurrence dateOriginRun timeMaximum PM1012005-03-28Manchuria03.27.12 UTC – 03.29.00 UTC (36 hours)Kwanaksan 45022005-04-10Inner Mongolia04.08.18 UTC – 04.10.06 UTC (36 hours)Ganghwa 52032005-04-14Inner Mongolia04.13.12 UTC – 04.14.06 UTC (18 hours)Baengnyeongdo 65042005-04-15Inner Mongolia04.14.00 UTC – 04.15.00 UTC (24 hours)Ganghwa 30052005-04-20Inner Mongolia04.19.06 UTC – 04.20.06 UTC (24 hours)Cheonan 65062005-05-01Manchuria04.29.00 UTC – 05.01.00 UTC (48 hours)Baengnyeongdo 50072005-11-06Inner Mongolia11.05.06 UTC – 11.06.06 UTC (24 hours)Baengnyeongdo 130082006-01-15Inner Mongolia01.14.06 UTC – 01.15.18 UTC (36 hours)Baengnyeongdo 32092006-03-11Gobi desert03.09.18 UTC – 03.11.06 UTC (36 hours)Gwangdeoksan 1000102006-03-13Inner Mongolia03.12.06 UTC – 03.13.06 UTC (24 hours)Ganghwa 750112006-03-25Gobi desert03.24.06 UTC – 03.25.00 UTC (24 hours)Ganghwa 270122006-04-08Gobi desert04.06.12 UTC – 04.08.12 UTC (48 hours)Kwanaksan 2300132006-04-19Inner Mongolia04.16.06 UTC – 04.19.06 UTC (72 hours)Gosan 330142006-04-23Inner Mongolia04.21.18 UTC – 04.23.12 UTC (42 hours)Baengnyeongdo 550152006-05-01Gobi desert04.29.06 UTC – 05.01.06 UTC (48 hours)Gyegryelbi-do 500162007-02-03Manchuria02.03.00 UTC – 02.04.00 UTC (24 hours)Baengnyeongdo 300172007-02-13Inner Mongolia02.13.00 UTC – 02.14.00 UTC (24 hours)Baengnyeongdo 269182007-02-22Inner Mongolia02.21.06 UTC – 02.22.18 UTC (36 hours)Heuksando 238192007-03-27Inner Mongolia03.25.18 UTC – 03.27.12 UTC (42 hours)Kwanaksan 413202007-04-04Manchuria04.03.00 UTC – 04.04.00 UTC (24 hours)Baengnyeongdo 180212007-05-07Inner Mongolia05.06.18 UTC – 05.07.18 UTC (24 hours)Baengnyeongdo 985222007-05-25Inner Mongolia05.23.12 UTC – 05.25.12 UTC (48 hours)Chupungnyeong 493232008-03-02Inner Mongolia02.29.18 UTC – 03.02.12 UTC (42 hours)Daegu 1428242008-03-16Manchuria03.15.00 UTC – 03.16.06 UTC (30 hours)Ganghwa 323252008-03-18Gobi desert03.17.12 UTC – 03.19.00 UTC (36 hours)Baengnyeongdo 397262008-05-21Gobi desert05.20.00 UTC – 05.21.12 UTC (36 hours)Baengnyeongdo 424272008-12-09Inner Mongolia12.07.06 UTC – 12.09.00 UTC (42 hours)Anmyeondo 335282009-03-13Manchuria03.13.00 UTC – 03.14.00 UTC (24 hours)Seoul 169292009-03-16Inner Mongolia03.14.12 UTC – 03.16.06 UTC (42 hours)Sokcho 539302009-04-25Inner Mongolia04.23.06 UTC – 04.25.06 UTC (48 hours)Gudeoksan 307312009-05-12Manchuria05.12.06 UTC – 05.13.00 UTC (18 hours)Baengnyeongdo 174322009-09-21Inner Mongolia09.19.12 UTC – 09.22.00 UTC (60 hours)Baengnyeongdo 207332009-10-20Manchuria10.19.06 UTC – 10.20.00 UTC (18 hours)Ganghwa 389342009-12-25Inner Mongolia12.24.06 UTC – 12.25.12 UTC (30 hours)Suwon 1132352009-12-29Inner Mongolia12.28.00 UTC – 12.29.18 UTC (42 hours)Gyegryelbi-do 417362010-01-25Inner Mongolia01.24.06 UTC – 01.25.00 UTC (18 hours)Ganghwa 348372010-03-12Inner Mongolia03.11.12 UTC – 03.12.12 UTC (24 hours)Yeongwol 386382010-03-13Manchuria03.12.00 UTC – 03.13.00 UTC (24 hours)Baengnyeongdo 338392010-03-16Inner Mongolia03.14.12 UTC – 03.16.00 UTC (36 hours)Ganghwa 572402010-03-20Inner Mongolia03.19.18 UTC – 03.20.12 UTC (18 hours)Heuksando 2712412010-03-23Inner Mongolia03.21.18 UTC – 03.23.06 UTC (36 hours)Andong 272422010-04-01Inner Mongolia03.31.00 UTC – 04.01.00 UTC (24 hours)Baengnyeongdo 247432010-04-27Inner Mongolia04.24.18 UTC – 04.27.06 UTC (60 hours)Ulsan 164442010-05-10Inner Mongolia05.08.12 UTC – 05.11.00 UTC (60 hours)Kwanaksan 361452010-11-27Gobi desert11.26.12 UTC – 11.27.06 UTC (18 hours)Baengnyeongdo 371462010-12-10Inner Mongolia12.09.12 UTC – 12.10.18 UTC (30 hours)Cheonan 375

[i] The occurrence date and maximum PM10 are based on observations over South Korea.

Table 2. Ratio of linearly evolved perturbation to nonlinearly evolved perturbation in the projection area, averaged over all cases

VariableRatioTemperature2K1K0.5KU1.1304548431.085680.978173V0.9345216861.0611231.063158T1.1478350041.2672481.10371Zonal wind4 m s−12 m s−11 m s−1U1.410082101.052456741.06012416V1.924213411.029456140.96919686T1.066766020.972604930.97950518Q1.353339551.511191611.06604850
Fig. 3

Monthly occurrence of Asian dust events affecting the Korean Peninsula from 2005 to 2010.

Table 3. Annual frequency distributions of the source regions of Asian dust events that affected the Korean Peninsula from 2005 to 2010

Gobi desertInner MongoliaManchuriaTotal200552720064482007527200822152009538201019111Total730946

Table 4. Annual frequency distributions of Asian dust events that affected the Korean Peninsula from 2005 to 2010, categorized by the model integration time

Year200520062007200820092010TotalRun time18 hours123624 hours324131330 hours111336 hours22122942 hours1122648 hours1211554 hours60 hours12372 hours11Total787581146
Fig. 4

(a) The trajectories of all cases, (b) the representative trajectories of clustered groups using a regression analysis, and the trajectories of: (c) group 1, (d) group 2, (e) group 3, and (f) group 4.

Fig. 5

The average surface-pressure patterns (black line) and 500 hPa geopotential height (blue line) at the occurrence times of maximum PM10 concentrations on the Korean Peninsula for: (a) group 1, (b) group 2, (c) group 3, and (d) group 4.

Table 5. Monthly frequency distributions of clustered groups of Asian dust events that affected the Korean Peninsula from 2005 to 2010

MonthGroup 1Group 2Group 3Group 4TotalJan112Feb213Mar732315Apr333211May22217Sep11Oct11Nov112Dec1214Total161013746

Table 6. Frequency distributions of clustered groups of Asian dust events that affected the Korean Peninsula from 2005 to 2010, categorized by the model integration time

Run timeGroup 1Group 2Group 3Group 418 hours21324 hours633130 hours2136 hours331242 hours21348 hours11354 hours60 hours372 hours1Total1610137
Fig. 6

(a) Composite of the sensitivity field and (b) the sensitivity frequency field for all 46 cases, calculated using the energy forecast error as a response function for adjoint sensitivity calculation. (c) Composite of the sensitivity field and (d) the sensitivity frequency field for all 46 cases, calculated using the low-level pressure forecast error as a response function for adjoint sensitivity calculation.

Fig. 7

Vertical profiles of the composite sensitivities (solid: total energy; dashed: kinetic energy; and dotted: potential energy) for boxes (a) A and (b) B in Fig. 6(a).

Fig. 8

The composite sensitivity frequency fields for the cases in (a) group 1, (b) group 2, (c) group 3, and (d) group 4.

Fig. 9

The average surface-pressure patterns (black line) and 500 hPa geopotential height (blue line) at the initial time of the model integrations for: (a) group 1, (b) group 2, (c) group 3, and (d) group 4.

Fig. 10

The composite sensitivity frequency fields for the cases categorised by model integration times of: (a) 18–24 hours, (b) 30–36 hours, (c) 42–48 hours, and (d) 54–72 hours.

Fig. 11

The composite sensitivity frequency fields for the events that occurred in: (a) February, (b) March, (c) April, (d) May, and (e) December.

Language: English
Page range: 20554 - 20554
Submitted on: Feb 3, 2013
Accepted on: Sep 5, 2013
Published on: Jan 1, 2013
Published by: Stockholm University Press
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services

© 2013 Hyun Mee Kim, Jun Kyung Kay, Eun-Gyeong Yang, Sehyun Kim, Meehye Lee, published by Stockholm University Press
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.