Modelling temperature acclimation effects on the carbon dynamics of forest ecosystems in the conterminous United States

The projected rise in temperature in the 21st century will alter forest ecosystem functioning and carbon dynamics. To date, the acclimation of plant photosynthesis to rising temperature has not been adequately considered in earth system models. Here we present a study on regional ecosystem carbon dynamics under future climate scenarios incorporating temperature acclimation effects into a large-scale ecosystem model, the terrestrial ecosystem model (TEM). We first incorporate a general formulation of the temperature acclimation of plant photosynthesis into TEM, and then apply the revised model to the forest ecosystems of the conterminous United States for the 21st century under the future Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) climate scenarios A1FI, A2, B1 and B2. We find that there are significant differences between the estimates of carbon dynamics from the previous and the revised models. The largest differences occur under the A1FI scenario, in which the model that considers acclimation effects predicts that the region will act as a carbon sink, and that cumulative carbon in the 21st century will be 35 Pg C higher than the estimates from the model that does not consider acclimation effects. Our results further indicate that in the region there are spatially different responses to temperature acclimation effects. This study suggests that terrestrial ecosystem models should take temperature acclimation effects into account so as to more accurately quantify ecosystem carbon dynamics at regional scales.