The Role of the Gulf Stream in the Prediction of Iceberg Distribution in the North Atlantic

A twenty-six year correlation is made between the yearly frequency fluctuations of icebergs south of the 48th parallel and the preseasonal sea surface temperature anomalies at Key West in the Straits of Florida and those of the Labrador Current three years later.

Good agreement among these variables is attributed to (1) the immediate effect of the relative strength of the Gulf Stream in barring the southward flow of bergs, and (2) the effect that varying strength of the Gulf Stream has upon the volume of warm water that escapes to the north, the effect in turn upon the rate of transport of icebergs, and the potential number eventually to be carried into the shipping lanes.

An iceberg prediction table is offered, making possible a prediction for the current year by using the sea temperature anomaly at Key West for March of this year together with the anomaly of three years earlier.

“The opinions and assertions contained herein are the private ones of the author and do not reflect the views of the Navy Department or the Naval Establishment.”