Skip to main content
Have a personal or library account? Click to login
The Niño3.4 region predictability beyond the persistence barrier Cover

The Niño3.4 region predictability beyond the persistence barrier

Tellus
Volume 67 (2015): Issue 1
By: ,  ,   and    
Open Access
|Dec 2015
References

References

  1. Anderson B. T . Investigation of a large-scale mode of Ocean–Atmosphere variability and its relationship to Tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies . J. Clim . 2004 ; 17 : 4080 – 4098 . DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  2. Ballester J , Rodriguez-Arias M. A , Rodo X . A new extratropical tracer describing the role of the Western Pacific in the onset of El Niño: implications for ENSO understanding and forecasting . J. Clim . 2011 ; 24 : 1425 – 1437 . DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3619.1 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  3. Barnston A. G , Tippett M. K , L'Heureux M. L , Li S , DeWitt D . Skill of real-time seasonal ENSO model predictions during 2002–11: is our capability increasing? . Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc . 2012 ; 93 : 631 – 651 . DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00111.1 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  4. Blumenthal M . Predictability of a coupled ocean–atmosphere model . J. Clim . 1991 ; 4 : 766 – 784 . DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1991)004 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  5. Boschat G , Terray P , Masson S . Extratropical forcing of ENSO . Geophys. Res. Lett . 2013 ; 40 : 1605 – 1611 . DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/grl.50229 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  6. Burgers G , Jin F , Oldenborgh G . The simplest ENSO recharge oscillator . Geophys. Res. Lett . 2005 ; 32 : L13706 . DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2005GL022951 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  7. Chen D. K , Zebiak S. D , Cane M. A , Busalacchi A. J . Initialization and predictability of a coupled ENSO forecast model . Mon. Weather Rev . 1997 ; 125 : 733 – 788 . DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1997)125 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  8. Chiang J , Vimont D . Analogous Pacific and Atlantic meridional modes of tropical-atmosphere–ocean variability . J. Clim . 2004 ; 17 : 4143 – 4158 . DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4953.1 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  9. Clarke A. J , Van Gorder S . Improving El Niño prediction using a spacetime integration of Indo-Pacific winds and equatorial Pacific upper ocean heat content . Geophys. Res. Lett . 2003 ; 30 ( 7 ): 1399 . DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2002GL016673 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  10. Dayan H , Vialard J , Izumo T , Lengaigne M . Does sea surface temperature outside the tropical Pacific contribute to enhanced ENSO predictability? . Clim. Dynam . 2014 ; 43 : 1311 – 1325 . DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1946-y .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  11. Dee D. P , Uppala S. M , Simmons A. J , Berrisford P , Poli P , co-authors . The ERA-Interim reanalysis configuration and performance of the data assimilation system . Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc . 2011 ; 137 : 553 – 597 . DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.828 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  12. Dominiak S , Terray P . Improvement of ENSO predictions using a linear regression model with a Southern Indian Ocean sea surface temperature predictor . Geophys. Res. Lett . 2005 ; 32 : L18702 . DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.102972005GL023153 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  13. Enfield D. B , Mestas A , Mayer D. S , Cid Serrano L . How ubiquitous is the dipole relationship in tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures? . J. Geophys. Res . 1999 ; 104 : 7841 – 7848 . DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/199JC900036 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  14. Fisher R. A . On the “Probable Error” of a coefficient of correlation deduced from a small sample . Metron . 1921 ; 1 : 1 – 32 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  15. Ham Y. G , Kug J. S , Park J. Y , Jin F. F . Sea surface temperature in the North Tropical Atlantic as a trigger for El Niño-Southern Oscillation events . Nat. Geosci. Lett . 2013 ; 6 : 112 – 114 . DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1686 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  16. Hasselmann K . PIPs and POPs: the reduction of complex dynamical systems using Principal Interaction and Oscillation Patterns . J. Geophys. Res . 1988 ; 93 : 11015 – 11021 . DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/JD093iD09p11015 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  17. Hollingsworth A , Arpe K , Tiedke M , Capaldo M , Savijaervi H . The performance of a medium range forecast model in winter: impact of physical parameterization . Mon. Weather Rev . 1980 ; 108 : 1736 – 1773 . DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1980)108 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  18. Horii T , Ueki I , Hanawa K . Breakdown of ENSO predictors in the 2000s: decadal changes of recharge/discharge-SST phase relation and atmospheric intraseasonal forcing . Geophys. Res. Lett . 2012 ; 39 : L10707 . DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2012Gl051740 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  19. Izumo T , Vialard J , Lengaigne M , Montegut C. B , Behera S. K , co-authors . Influence of the state of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the following year's El Niño . Nat. Geosci . 2010 ; 3 : 168 – 172 . DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ngeo760 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  20. Jansen M. F , Dommenget D , Keenlyside N . Tropical atmosphere–ocean interactions in a conceptual framework . J. Clim . 2009 ; 22 : 550 – 567 . DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI.2243.1 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  21. Jin E. K , Kinter J. L . Characteristics of tropical Pacific SST predictability in coupled GCM forecast using the NCEP CFS . Clim. Dynam . 2009 ; 82 : 675 – 691 . DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-008-0418-2 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  22. Jin F. F . An equatorial ocean recharge paradigm for ENSO. Part I: conceptual model . J. Atmos. Sci . 1997 ; 54 ( 7 ): 811 – 829 . DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1997)054 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  23. Johnson S , Batisti D , Sarachick E . Empirically derived Markov Models and prediction of Tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies . J. Clim . 2000 ; 13 : 3 – 17 . DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<3327:SIAEDM>2.0.CO;2 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  24. Karnauskas K. B , Seager R , Kaplan A , Kushnir Y , Cane M. A . Observed strengthening of the zonal sea surface temperature gradient across the Equatorial Pacific Ocean . J. Clim . 2009 ; 22 : 4316 – 4321 . DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2936.1 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  25. Keenlyside N. S , Ding H , Latif M . Potential of equatorial atlantic variability to enhance El Niño Predictions . Geophys. Res. Lett . 2013 ; 40 : 2278 – 2289 . DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/grl.50362 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  26. Kirtman B , Anderson A , Kang I.-S , Scaife A , Smith D , Asnar G. R , Hurrell J. W . Prediction from weeks to decades . Climate Science for serving Society . 2013 ; Berlin : Springer . 205 – 235 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  27. Kirtman B. P . Oceanic Rossby wave dynamics and the ENSO period in a coupled model . J. Clim . 1997 ; 10 : 1690 – 1705 . DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  28. Luo J. J , Zhang R , Swadhin K , Behera Y , Masumoto F. F , co-authors . Interaction between El Niño and extreme Indian Ocean Dipole . J. Clim . 2010 ; 23 : 726 – 742 . DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI3104.1 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  29. McPhaden M. J , Zhang X , Hendon H. H , Wheeler M. C . Large scale dynamics and MJO forcing of ENSO variability . Geophys. Res. Lett . 2006 ; 13 : L16702 . DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2006GL026786 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  30. Mears C. A , Wentz F. J . Construction of the remote sensing systems v3.2 atmospheric temperature records from the MSV and AMSV microwave sounders . J. Atmos. Ocean. Technol . 2009 ; 26 : 1040 – 1056 . DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2008JTECHA1176.1 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  31. Meinen C. S , McPhaden M. J . Observations of Warm Water Volume changes in the Equatorial Pacific and their relationship to EL Niño and la Niña . J. Clim . 2000 ; 13 : 3551 – 3559 . DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<3551:OOWWVC>2.0.CO;2 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  32. Miller A. J , Cayan D , Barnett T. P , Graham N. E , Oberhuber J. M . The 1976–1977 climate shift of the Pacific ocean . Oceanography . 1994 ; 7 : 21 – 26 . DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.1994.11 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  33. Moore A. M , Kleeman R . The dynamics of error growth and predictability in a coupled model of ENSO . Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc . 1996 ; 122 : 1405 – 1446 . DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.49712253409 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  34. OrtízBeviá M. J , Alvarez-García F. J , Ruiz de Elvira A. M , Liguori G . The western Mediterranean summer variability and its feedbacks . Clim. Dynam . 2012 ; 39 : 3103 – 3120 . DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1400-s .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  35. Penland C , Magorian M . Prediction of Niño3 sea surface temperature anomalies using linear inverse modeling . J. Clim . 1993 ; 6 : 1067 – 1176 . DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1993)006 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  36. Penland C , Matrosova L . Prediction of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures using linear inverse modeling . J. Clim . 1998 ; 11 : 483 – 496 . DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  37. Penland C , Sardeshmukh P. D . The optimal growth of tropical sea surface anomalies . J. Clim . 1995 ; 8 : 1999 – 2024 . DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1995)018 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  38. Rodriguez-Fonseca B , Polo I , García-Serrano J , Losada T , Mohino E , co-authors . Are Atlantic Niños enhancing Pacific ENSO events in recent decades? . Geophys. Res. Lett . 2009 ; 36 : L20705 . DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/20099GL040098 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  39. Saji N. H , Goswami B. N , Vinachandran P. N , Yamagata T . A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean . Nature . 1999 ; 401 : 360 – 363 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  40. Stepanov V. N . Modeling of El Niño events using a simple model . Oceanology . 2009 ; 3 : 310 – 319 . DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1134/S0001437009030023 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  41. Suarez M. J , Schopf P. S . A delayed action oscillator for ENSO . J. Atmos. Sci . 1988 ; 45 : 3283 – 3287 . DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.117571520-0469(1988)045 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  42. Tasambay-Salazar M , OrtizBeviá M. J , Alvarez-García F , RuizdeElvira A . An estimation of ENSO predictability from its seasonal teleconnections . Theor. Appl. Climatol . 2015 . DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00704-0.15-1546-3 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  43. Terray P . Southern Hemisphere extra-tropical forcing: a new paradigm for El Niño -Southern Oscillation . Clim. Dynam . 2011 ; 36 : 2171 – 2199 . DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/500382-GL0-6825-Z .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  44. Trenberth K. E . Signal versus noise in the Southern Oscillation . Mon. Weather. Rev . 1984 ; 112 : 326, 332 . DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1984)112 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  45. Trenberth K. E . The definition of El Niño . Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc . 1997 ; 78 : 2771 – 2777 . DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  46. Van den Dool H. M , Toth Z . Why do forecasts for ‘near normal’ often fail? . Weather. Forecast . 1991 ; 6 : 76 – 85 . DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(1991)006 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  47. Van Loon H , Jenne D . Zonal harmonic standing waves in the Southern Hemisphere . J. Geophys. Res . 1972 ; 77 : 992 – 1103 . DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/JC077i006p00992 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  48. Venegas S. A , Drinkwater M , Shaffer G . Coupled oscillations in Antarctic sea ice and atmosphere in the South Pacific sector . Geophys. Res. Lett . 2001 ; 28 : 3301 – 3304 . DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2001GL12991 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  49. Vimont D. J , Alexander M , Fontaine A . Midlatitude excitation of tropical variability in the Pacific: the role of thermodynamic coupling and seasonality . J. Clim . 2009 ; 22 : 518 – 534 . DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2220.1 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  50. Vimont D. J , Wallace J. M , Battisti D. S . The seasonal footprinting mechanism in the Pacific: implications for ENSO . J. Clim . 2003 ; 16 : 2668 – 2675 . DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  51. Von Storch H , Burger G , Schnur R , von Storch J.-S . Principal Oscillation Patterns: a review . J. Clim . 1995 ; 8 : 377 – 400 . DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1995)008 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  52. Wang Y , Lupo A. R , Qin J . A response in the ENSO cycle to an extratropical forcing mechanism during El Niño to La Niña transition . Tellus A . 2013 ; 65 : 22431 . DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.V65i0.22431 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  53. White W. S , Chen S. C , Allan R. J , Stone R. C . Positive feedback between the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave and the global El Nino- Southern Oscillation wave . J. Geophys. Res . 2002 ; 107 : 29–1 – 29-17 . DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/200JC00581 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  54. Wilks S. S . Mathematical Statistics . 1962 ; New York : Wiley .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  55. Wu R , Kirtman B. P , Van Den Dool H . An analysis of ENSO prediction skill in CFS retrospective forecast . J. Clim . 2009 ; 22 : 1801 – 1817 . DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2565.1 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  56. Yu J. Y , Kim S. T . Identifying the types of major El Niño Events since 1870 . Int. J. Climatol . 2013 ; 33 : 2105 – 2112 . DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.3575 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  57. Yuan X , Li C . Climate modes in southern high latitudes and their impacts on Antarctic sea ice . J. Geophys. Res . 2008 ; 113 : C06S91 . DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2006JC004067 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  58. Zhang H , Clement A , Dinezio P . The South Pacific meridional mode: a mechanism for ENSO-like variability . J. Clim . 2014 ; 27 : 769 – 783 . DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00082.1 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v67.27457 | Journal eISSN: 3035-9554
Journal RSS Feed
Language: English
Page range: 27457 - 27457
Submitted on: Feb 2, 2015
Accepted on: Aug 2, 2015
Published on: Dec 1, 2015
Published by: Stockholm University Press
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Keywords:
Niño3.4,
predictability,
barrier,
predictors,
tropical,
extratropical,
seasonal,
stochastic,
models

© 2015 Miguel Tasambay-Salazar, María José Ortizbeviá, Francisco J. Alvarez-García, Antonio M. Ruiz de Elvira, published by Stockholm University Press
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Volume 67 (2015): Issue 1
Previous article
Next article