Table 1. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and the list of the climate models that comprise historical runs (Experiment 3.2) of CMIP5, with their modelling institution, official institution ID, country of modelling institution, grid resolution and number of ensemble realisations available in this paper
National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)NCEP/NCARUSAReanalysis192×94n/aCommonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) and Bureau of Meteorology (BOM)CSIRO-BOMAustralia33ACCESS1.0192×145132ACCESS1.3192×1453College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal UniversityGCESSChina9BNU-ESM128×641National Center for Atmospheric ResearchNCARUSA46CCSM4288×1926Community Earth System Model ContributorsNSF-DOE-NCARUSA45CESM1(BGC)288×192122CESM1(CAM5.1,FV2)144×96443CESM1(CAM5)288×192344CESM1(FASTCHEM)288×192321CESM1(WACCM)144×964Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per I Cambiamenti ClimaticiCMCCEurope1CMCC-CESM96×48125CMCC-CMS192×96147CMCC-CM480×2401Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques/Centre Européen de Recherche et Formation Avancée en Calcul ScientifiqueCNRM-CERFACSFrance37CNRM-CM5256×12810Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization in collaboration with Queensland Climate Change Centre of ExcellenceCSIRO-QCCCEAustralia26CSIRO-Mk3.6.0192×9610Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and AnalysisCCCMACanada5CanCM4128×64104CanESM2128×645EC-EARTH consortiumEC-EARTHEurope41EC-EARTH320×16011LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences and CESS, Tsinghua UniversityLASG-CESSChina3FGOALS-g2128×605The First Institute of Oceanography, SOAFIOChina10FIO-ESM128×641National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics LaboratoryNOAA GFDLUSA20GFDL-CM2.1144×901019GFDL-CM3144×90518GFDL-ESM2G144×90117GFDL-ESM2M144×901NASA Goddard Institute for Space StudiesNASA GISSUSA13GISS-E2-H-CC144×90114GISS-E2-H144×90115GISS-E2-R-CC144×90116GISS-E2-R144×9025Met Office Hadley Centre (additional HadGEM2-ES realisations contributed by Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais)MOHCUK2HadCM396×731034HadGEM2-CC192×1453MOHC/INPE36HadGEM2-ES192×1454National Institute of Meteorological Research/Korea Meteorological AdministrationNIMR/KMAKorea35HadGEM2-AO192×1451Institut Pierre-Simon LaplaceIPSLFrance11IPSL-CM5A-LR96×96630IPSL-CM5A-MR144×143312IPSL-CM5B-LR96×961Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute (The University of Tokyo), and National Institute for Environmental StudiesMIROCJapan6MIROC-ESM-CHEM128×6417MIROC-ESM128×643Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute (The University of Tokyo), National Institute for Environmental Studies, and Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and TechnologyMIROCJapan48MIROC4h640×320338MIROC5256×1285Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology)MPI-MGermany27MPI-ESM-LR192×96329MPI-ESM-MR192×96328MPI-ESM-P192×962Meteorological Research InstituteMRIJapan39MRI-CGCM3320×160540MRI-ESM1320×1601Norwegian Climate CentreNCCNorway24NorESM1-ME144×96123NorESM1-M144×963Beijing Climate Center, China Meteorological AdministrationBCCChina42BCC-CSM1.1(m)320×16038BCC-CSM1.1128×643Institute for Numerical MathematicsINMRussia31INM-CM4180×1201
Fig. 1
Twenty-one land regions used in the study: Australia (AUS), Amazon Basin (AMZ), Southern South America (SSA), Central America (CAM), Western North America (WNA), Central North America (CNA), Eastern North America (ENA), Alaska (ALA), Greenland (GRL), Mediterranean Basin (MED), Northern Europe (NEU), Western Africa (WAF), Eastern Africa (EAF), Southern Africa (SAF), Sahara (SAH), Southeast Asia (SEA), East Asia (EAS), South Asia (SAS), Central Asia (CAS), Tibet (TIB) and North Asia (NAS).
Fig. 2
The multidecadal average land surface temperature (top panel), its estimated mean (middle panel) and the residuals (bottom panel) for GFDL-CM3. The left and right panels are during JJA and DJF, respectively.
Fig. 3
The same as Fig. 2 but for the land surface temperatures in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis.
Fig. 4
Minimums, medians and maximums of the anomalies by season in GFDL-CM3.
Fig. 5
Smoothness of the multidecadal average near-surface air temperature anomalies in CMIP5, by increasing the size of the conditioning set in the conditional composite restricted likelihood. Each plot corresponds to a climate model in CMIP5 and has 21 curves of the estimated smoothness during JJA, one for each climate region. The curves that correspond to the regions WNA, SAH, NAS, AMZ and TIB are coloured.
Fig. 6
Smoothness of the multidecadal average near-surface air temperature anomalies in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis by season.
Fig. 7
Smoothness of the multidecadal average near-surface air temperature anomalies in CMIP5 during JJA.
Fig. 8
Smoothness of the multidecadal average near-surface air temperature anomalies in CMIP5 during DJF.
Fig. 9
Comparison of the smoothness of the multidecadal average near-surface air temperature anomalies in CMIP5, by climate region and season. Each curve corresponds to a climate region, among which WNA, SAH, NAS, AMZ, and TIB are coloured. Vertical lines differentiate resolutions (1: 96×73, 2: 128×64, 3: 96×96, 4: 144×96, 5: 192×96, 6: 192×145, 7: 320×160, 8: 288×192, 9: 640×320).
Fig. 10
Scale parameters of the multidecadal average near-surface air temperature anomalies in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data by season. The values are plotted on a logarithmic scale.
Fig. 11
Scale parameters of the multidecadal average near-surface air temperature anomalies in CMIP5 during JJA. The values are plotted on a logarithmic scale.
Fig. 12
Scale parameters of the multidecadal average near-surface air temperature anomalies in CMIP5 during DJF. The values are plotted on a logarithmic scale.