Fig. 1
Climatological (1961/62–2000/01) track density (ensemble means) of (a) all cyclones and (b) intense cyclones as number of tracks per winter (ONDJFM) within vicinity of 1000 km for 20CR (black contours) as well as the bias of the uninitialised runs of MPI-ESM-LR (shaded); areas of high orography are masked out (grey).
Fig. 2
RPSS of baseline0 over uninitialised runs regarding the track density (number of tracks per ONDJFM in the vicinity of 1000 km) of all identified cyclones, significant skill scores (α<5%) as black/white dots, areas of high orography or ambiguous class definitions are masked out (grey).
Fig. 3
RPSS of baseline0 over uninitialised runs regarding the track density (number of tracks per ONDJFM in the vicinity of 1000 km) of intense cyclones only (∇2(SLP)>75th perc.), significant skill scores α.
Fig. 4
RPSS of baseline1 over the uninitialised runs regarding the track density (number of tracks per ONDJFM in the vicinity of 1000 km) of all identified cyclones, significant skill scores (α<5%) as black/white dots, areas of high orography or ambiguous class definitions are masked out (grey).
Fig. 5
RPSS of baseline1 over uninitialised runs regarding the track density (number of tracks per ONDJFM in the vicinity of 1000 km) of intense cyclones only (∇2(SLP)>75th perc.), significant skill scores α.