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Added economic value of limited area multi-EPS weather forecasting applications Cover

Added economic value of limited area multi-EPS weather forecasting applications

Open Access
|Dec 2012

Figures & Tables

Fig. 1. 

Map of Belgium with latitude/longitude axes. Belgian weather stations used in this study are denoted with a dot, together with their place name and their WMO number in parentheses.

Fig. 2. 

BIAS of ensemble mean ECEPS (black full line), ensemble mean GLAMEPS (red dashed line) and ensemble mean LAEF (green dotted line) for bias corrected T 2m and S 10m (run=12 h).

Fig. 3. 

RMSE of ensemble mean ECEPS (black full line) and ensemble mean GLAMEPS (red dashed line), for bias corrected T 2m and S 10m (run=12 h).

Fig. 4. 

Ratio of RMSE to spread ratio of ECEPS (black full line) and GLAMEPS (red dashed line) for bias corrected T 2m and S 10m (run=12 h).

Fig. 5. 

CRPS of ECEPS (black full line) and GLAMEPS (red dashed line) for bias corrected T 2m and S 10m (run=12 h).

Fig. 6. 

Reliability component of CRPS of ECEPS (black full line) and GLAMEPS (red dashed line) for bias corrected T 2m and S 10m (run=12 h).

Fig. 7. 

Potential CRPS of ECEPS (black full line) and GLAMEPS (red dashed line) for bias corrected T 2m and S 10m (run=12 h).

Fig. 8. 

Potential CREV relative to (sample) climatology of ECEPS (black full line) and GLAMEPS (red dashed line) for bias corrected T 2m and S 10m (run=12 h, lead time=24 h).

Fig. 9. 

Potential CREV relative to (sample) climatology of ECEPS (black full line) and GLAMEPS (red dashed line) for bias corrected T 2m and S 10m (run=12 h, lead time=42 h).

Fig. 10. 

Confidence interval (95%) for the difference in RMSE of GLAMEPS vs. ECEPS (black full line with circle) and GLAMEPS-LAEF vs. GLAMEPS (red dashed line with triangle) for bias corrected T 2m and S 10m (run=12 h).

Fig. 11. 

Confidence interval (95%) for the difference in CRPS of GLAMEPS vs. ECEPS (black full line with circle) and GLAMEPS-LAEF vs. GLAMEPS (red dashed line with triangle) for bias corrected T 2m and S 10m (run=12 h).

Fig. 12. 

CRPS of GLAMEPS (black full line), GLAMEPS-LAEF (red dashed line) and ECEPS-GLAMEPS-LAEF (green dotted line) for bias corrected T 2m and S 10m (run=12 h).

Fig. 13. 

Reliability component of CRPS of GLAMEPS (black full line), GLAMEPS-LAEF (red dashed line) and ECEPS-GLAMEPS-LAEF (green dotted line) for bias corrected T 2m and S 10m (run=12 h).

Fig. 14. 

Potential CREV relative to (sample) climatology of GLAMEPS (black full line), GLAMEPS-LAEF (red dashed line) and ECEPS-GLAMEPS-LAEF (green dotted line) for bias corrected T 2m and S 10m (run=12 h, lead time=24 h).

Fig. 15. 

Potential CREV relative to (sample) climatology of GLAMEPS (black full line), GLAMEPS-LAEF (red dashed line) and ECEPS-GLAMEPS-LAEF (green dotted line) for bias corrected T 2m and S 10m (run=12 h, lead time=42 h).

Fig. 16. 

CRPS of LAEF (black full line), LAEF13 (red dashed line) and AladEPS (green dotted line) for bias corrected T 2m and S 10m (run=12 h).

Fig. 17. 

Reliability component of CRPS of LAEF (black full line), LAEF13 (red dashed line) and AladEPS (green dotted line) for bias corrected T 2m and S 10m (run=12 h).

Fig. 18. 

CRPS of GLAMEPS (black full line) and GLAMEPS-LAEF without AladEPS (red dashed line) for bias corrected T 2m and S 10m (run=12 h).

Fig. 19. 

Reliability component of CRPS of GLAMEPS (black full line) and GLAMEPS-LAEF without AladEPS (red dashed line) for bias corrected T 2m and S 10m (run=12 h).

Fig. 20. 

CRPS of GLAMEPS (black full line), GLAMEPS without AladEPS (red dashed line), GLAMEPS without ECEPS13 (green dotted line), GLAMEPS without HirEPS_K (blue dash dotted line) and GLAMEPS without HirEPS_S (light blue big dashed line) for bias corrected T 2m and S 10m (run=12 h).

Fig. 21. 

Potential CREV relative to (sample) climatology of GLAMEPS (black full line), GLAMEPS without AladEPS (red dashed line), GLAMEPS without ECEPS13 (green dotted line), GLAMEPS without HirEPS_K (blue dash dotted line), and GLAMEPS without HirEPS_S (light blue big dashed line) for bias corrected T 2m and S 10m (run=12 h, lead time=24 h).

Fig. 22. 

Potential CREV relative to (sample) climatology of GLAMEPS (black full line), GLAMEPS without AladEPS (red dashed line), GLAMEPS without ECEPS13 (green dotted line), GLAMEPS without HirEPS_K (blue dash dotted line) and GLAMEPS without HirEPS_S (light blue big dashed line) for bias corrected T 2m and S 10m (run=12 h, lead time=42 h).

Fig. 23. 

CRPS of GLAMEPS-LAEF (black full line), GLAMEPS (red dashed line), GLAMEPS-LAEF without AladEPS (green dotted line), GLAMEPS-LAEF without ECEPS13 (blue dash dotted line) and GLAMEPS-LAEF without HirEPS_K (light blue big dashed line) and GLAMEPS-LAEF without HirEPS_S (pink big dash dotted line) for bias corrected T 2m and S 10m (run=12 h).

Fig. 24. 

Potential CREV relative to (sample) climatology of GLAMEPS-LAEF (black full line), GLAMEPS (red dashed line), GLAMEPS-LAEF without AladEPS (green dotted line), GLAMEPS-LAEF without ECEPS13 (blue dash dotted line) and GLAMEPS-LAEF without HirEPS_K (light blue big dashed line) and GLAMEPS-LAEF without HirEPS_S (pink big dash dotted line) for bias corrected T 2m and S 10m (run=12 h, lead time=24 h).

Fig. 25. 

Potential CREV relative to (sample) climatology of GLAMEPS-LAEF (black full line), GLAMEPS (red dashed line), GLAMEPS-LAEF without AladEPS (green dotted line), GLAMEPS-LAEF without ECEPS13 (blue dash dotted line) and GLAMEPS-LAEF without HirEPS_K (light blue big dashed line) and GLAMEPS-LAEF without HirEPS_S (pink big dash dotted line) for bias corrected T 2m and S 10m (run=12 h, lead time=42 h).

Table 1. Loss matrix (contingency table) of the static binary cost-loss model.

Protective action No protective action Event happens LmCL−C Event does not happen C 0
Language: English
Page range: 18901 - 18901
Submitted on: Sep 15, 2011
Accepted on: Jun 1, 2012
Published on: Dec 1, 2012
Published by: Stockholm University Press
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services

© 2012 Geert Smet, Piet Termonia, Alex Deckmyn, published by Stockholm University Press
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.