Seasonal weather forecasts for crop yield modelling in Europe

Pierre Cantelaube; Jean-Michel Terres

doi:10.3402/tellusa.v57i3.14669

Seasonal weather forecasts for crop yield modelling in Europe

Tellus

Volume 57 (2005): Issue 3

By: Pierre Cantelaube and Jean-Michel Terres

Open Access

|Jan 2005

Abstract

Within the European DEMETER project, ensembles of global coupled climate models have shown some skill for seasonal climate prediction. Meteorological outputs of the seasonal prediction system were used in a crop yield model to assess the performance and usefulness of such a system for crop yield forecasting.

An innovative method for supplying seasonal forecast information to crop simulation models was developed. It consisted in running a crop model from each individual downscaled member output of climate models. An ensemble of crop yield was obtained and a probability distribution function (PDF) was derived. Preliminary results of wheat yield simulations in Europe using downscaled DEMETER seasonal weather forecasts suggest that reliable crop yield predictions can be obtained using an ensemble multi-model approach. When compared to the operational system, for the same level of accuracy, earlier crop forecasts are obtained with the DEMETER system. Furthermore, PDFs of wheat yield provide information on both the yield anomaly and the uncertainty of the forecast. Based on the spread of the PDF, the user can directly quantify the benefits and risk of taking weather-sensitive decisions.

It is shown that the use of ensembles of seasonal weather forecast brings additional information for the crop yield forecasts and therefore has valuable benefit for decision-making in the management of European Union agricultural production.

References

Barnston , A. G. and Livezey , R. E. 1987 . Classification, seasonality and persistence of low-frequency atmospheric circulation patterns . Mon. Weather Rev . 115 , 1083 – 1126 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Cantelaube , P. and Terres , J. M. 2003 . Use of Seasonal Forecasts on Crop Yield Modelling. Publication of the European Commission, EUR 20996 EN.
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Cantelaube , P. , Terres , J. M. and Doblas-Reyes , F. J. 2004 . Influence of climate variability on European agriculturean analysis of winter wheat production . Clim. Res . 27 , 135 – 144 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Doblas-Reyes , F. J. , Deque , M. and Piedelievre J. -Ph. 2000. Multi-model spread and probabilistic seasonal forecasts in PROVOST. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc . 126 , 126 – 2088 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Doblas-Reyes , F. J. , Hagedorn , R. and Palmer , T. N. 2005 . The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting - II. Calibration and combination . Tellus 57A , 234 – 252 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
European Commission . 1997 . Towards a Common Agricultural and Rural Policy for Europe . Convened by Commission of European Communities . Directorate General for Agriculture (http : //europa.eu.int/comm/agriculture/publi/buck_en/cover.htm ).
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
European Commission . 1999 . La politique Agricole commune, synthese 1999. Directorate General for Agriculture . Office des publications officielles des Communaute’s europeennes, Luxembourg , 2000 , 30 pp .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
FAOSTAT . 2001 . FAO Statistical Databases . Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nation. Rome , Italy .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Feddersen , H. and Andersen , U. 2005 . A method for statistical down-scaling of seasonal ensemble predictions. Tellus 57A , this issue .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Genovese , G. 1998 . The methodology, the results and the evaluation of the MARS crop yield forecasting system, in Agrometeorological Application for Regional Crop Monitoring and Production Assessment, Account of the EU Support group on Agrometeorology (SUGRAM), Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, Luxembourg. Report No. EUR 17735 EN, 67 - 119 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Hagedorn , R. , Doblas-Reyes , E J. and Palmer , T. N. 2005 . The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting - I. Basic concept . Tellus 57A , 219 – 233 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Hammer , G. L. , Hansen , J. W. , Phillips , J. G. , Mjelde J. W. , Hill , H. and co-authors. 2001. Advances in application of climate prediction in agriculture . Agricultural Systems 74 , 515 – 553.
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Hansen , J. W. 2002 . Applying seasonal climate prediction to agriculture production . Agricultural Systems 74 , 305 – 307 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Hoogenboom , G. 2000 . Contribution of agrometeorology to the simulation of crop production and its application . Agric. For Meteorol . 103 , 137 – 157 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Jones , J. W. , Hansem , J. W. , Royce F. S. and Messina , C. D. 2000 . Potential benefits of climate forecasting in Agriculture . Agric. EcosysL Environ . 82 , 169 – 184 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Lemos , M. C. , Finan , T. J. , Fox , R. W. , Nelson D. R. and Tucker J. 2002 . The use of seasonal forecasting in policymaking: lessons from the north-east Brazil . Clim. Change 55 , 479 – 507 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Marletto , V. , Zinoni , E , Criscuolo , L. , Fontana , G. , Marchesi , S. and co-authors. 2005. Evaluation of downscaled DEMETER multi-model ensemble seasonal hindcasts in a northern Italy location by means of a model of wheat growth and soil water balance . Tellus 57A , 488 - 497 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Marshall , J. , Kushnir , Y. , Battisti , D. , Chang , P. , Czaja , A. and co-authors. 2001 . North Atlantic climate variability: phenomena, impact and mechanisms . Int. J. Climatol . 21 , 1863– 1898 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Meyer-Roux , J. and Vossen , P. 1994 . The first phase of the MARS project, 1988–1993: overview, methods and results. In: Proceedings of the Conference on the MARS Project: Overview and Perspectives, Belgirate, 17-18 November 1993 . Publication EUR 15599 EN of the Office for Official Publications of the EU, Luxembourg .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Meza , F. J. and Wilks , D. S. 2003 . Value of operational forecasts of seasonal average sea surface temperature anomalies for selected minted agricultural locations of Chile . Agric. For. Meteorol . 116 , 137 – 158 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Neelin , J. D. , Battisti , D. S. , Hirst , A. C. , Jin , F. , Wakata , Y. and co-authors . 1998 . ENSO theory. J. Geophys. Res . 103 , 14261 – 14290.
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Nnaji , A. 0. 2001 . Forecasting seasonal rainfall for agricultural decision-making in northern Nigeria . Agric. For. Meteorol . 107 , 193 – 205 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Ogallo , L. A. , Boulahya , M. S. and Keane , T. 2000 . Applications of seasonal to interannual climate predictions in agricultural planning and operations . Agric. For. Meteorol . 103 , 159 – 166 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Olesen , J. E. and Bindi , M. 2002 . Consequences of climate change for European agricultural productivity, land use and policy . Eur. J. Agronomy 16 , 239 – 262 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Palmer , T. N. 1993 . Extended-range atmospheric prediction and the Lorentz model . Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc . 74 , 49 – 65 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Palmer , T. N., Brankovic, and Richardson , D. S. 2000. A probability and decision-model analysis of PROVOST seasonal multi-model ensemble integrations. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc . 126 , 2013–203 4 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Palmer , T. N. , Alessandri , A. , Andersen , U. , Cantelaube , P. , Davey , M. and co-authors. 2004. Development of a European multi-model ensemble system for seasonal-to-interannual prediction (DEMETER) . Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc . 85 , 85 – 872 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Pavan , V. , Molteni , F. and Brankovic , Ĉ. 2000 . Wintertime variabilityin Euro-Atlantic region in observations and in ECMWF seasonal ensemble experiments . Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc . 126 , 2143 – 2173 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Penman , H. L. 1948 . Natural evaporation from open water, bare soil and grass . Proceedings of the Royal Society, Series A 193 , 120 – 146 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Petersen , E. and Fraser , R. W. 2001 . An assessment of the value of seasonal forecasting technology for Western Australian farmers . Agricultural Systems 70 , 259 – 274 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Phillips , J. G. , Cane , M. A. and Rosenzweig , C. 1998 . ENSO, seasonal rainfall patterns and simulated maize yield variability in Zimbabwe . Agric. For Meteorol 90 , 39 – 50 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Rabbinge , R. and van Diepen , C. A. 2000 . Change in agriculture and land use in Europe . Eur J. Agronomy 13 , 85 – 100 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Richardson , C. W. 1981 . Stochastic simulation of daily precipitation, temperature and solar radiation . J. AppL Meteorol . 17 , 182 – 190 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Rijks , D. , Terres , J. M. and Vossen , P. 1998 . Agrometeorological Applications for Regional Crop Monitoring and Production Assessment, Account of the EU Support Group on Agrometeorology (SUGRAM). Publication EUR 17735 EN of the Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, Luxembourg.
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Shukla , J. 1998 . Predictability in the midst of chaos: a scientific basis for climate forecasting . Science 282 , 728 – 731 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Sivalcumar , M. V. K. , Gommes , R. and Baier , W. 2000 . Agrometeorology and sustainable agriculture . Agric. For Meteorol 103 , 11 – 26 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Solow , A. , Adams , R. M. , Bryant , K. J. , Legler , O. M., O’Brien , J. J. and co-authors . 1998 . The value of improved ENSO prediction to US agriculture. Clim. Change 39 , 47 – 60 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Supit , I. 1997 . Predicting national wheat yields using a crop simulation and trend models . Agric. For Meteorol . 88 , 199 – 214 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Van Diepen , C. A. , Wolf , J. and van Keulen , H. 1989 . WOFOST: a simulation model of crop production . Soil Use and Management 5 , 16 – 24 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Vossen , P. 1995 . Early crop production assessment of the European Union, the system implemented by the MARS—STAT Project. Agrometeorological models: theory and applications in the MARS project. Publication EUR 16008 EN of the Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, Luxembourg.
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Wallace , J. M. and Gutzler , D. S. 1981 . Teleconnections in the geopotential height field during the Northern Hemisphere winter . Mon. Wea. Rev . 109 , 784 – 812 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article

Articles in this issue

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v57i3.14669 | Journal eISSN: 3035-9554

Journal RSS Feed

Language: English

Page range: 476 - 487

Submitted on: Mar 30, 2004

Accepted on: Dec 2, 2004

Published on: Jan 1, 2005

Published by: Stockholm University Press

In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services

© 2005 Pierre Cantelaube, Jean-Michel Terres, published by Stockholm University Press
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Volume 57 (2005): Issue 3