Skip to main content
Have a personal or library account? Click to login
The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting – II. Calibration and combination Cover

The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting – II. Calibration and combination

Open Access
|Jan 2005

References

  1. Adler , R. F. , Huffman , G. J. , Chang , A. , Ferraro , R. , Xie , P.-P. and co-authors. 2003. Climatology project (GPCP) monthly precipitation analysis (1979-present). J. Hydrometeor 4 , 1147 1167.
  2. Anderson , T. 1972 . The Statistical Analysis of Time Series . Wiley , New York .
  3. Archer , E. R. 2003 . Identifying underserved end-user groups in the provision of climate information . Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc . 84 , 1525 1532 .
  4. Atger , F. 2003 . Spatial and interannual variability of the reliability of ensemble-based probabilistic forecasts: Consequences for calibration . Mon. Wea. Rev . 131 , 1509 1523 .
  5. Barnston , A. , Mason , S. , Goddard , L. , Dewitt , D. and Zebiak , S. 2003 . Multi-model ensembling in seasonal climate forecasting at IRI . Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc . 84 , 1783 1796 .
  6. Cantelaube , P. and Terres , J.-M. 2005 . Seasonal weather forecasts for crop yield modelling in Europe . Tellus 57A , 476 487 .
  7. Challinor , A. J. , Slingo , J. M. , Wheeler , T. R. and Doblas-Reyes , F. J. 2005 . Probabilistic simulations of crop yield over western India using the DEMETER seasonal hindcast ensembles . Tellus 57A , 498 512 .
  8. Clark , R. and Deque , M. 2003 . Conditional probability of seasonal predictions of precipitation . Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc . 129 , 179 193 .
  9. Clemen , R. T. 1989 . Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography . Int. J. Forecasting 5 , 559 583 .
  10. Coelho , C. A. , Pezzulli , S. , Balmaseda , M. , Doblas-Reyes , E J. and Stephenson , D. B. 2003 . Skill of coupled model seasonal fore-casts: A bayesian assessment of ECMWF ENSO forecasts . ECMWF Technical Memorandum No . 426 .
  11. Coelho , C. A. , Pezzulli , S. , Balmaseda , M. , Doblas-Reyes , E J. and Stephenson , D. B. 2004 . Forecast calibration and combination: a simple bayesian approach for ENSO . J. Climate 17 , 1504 1516 .
  12. Déqué , M. 1991 . Removing the model systematic error in extended range . Ann. Geophys . 9 , 242 251 .
  13. Derome , J. , Brunet , G. , Plante , A. , Gagnon , N. , Boer , G. J. and co-authors 2001 . Seasonal predictions based on two dynamical models. Atmosphere-Ocean 39 , 485 501 .
  14. Doblas-Reyes , F. J. , Deque , M. and Piedelievre , J.-P. 2000 . Multi-model spread and probabilistic seasonal forecasts in PROVOST . Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc . 126 , 2069 2088 .
  15. Doblas-Reyes , F. J. , Pavan , V. and Stephenson , D. B. 2003 . Multi-model seasonal hindcasts of the NAO . Climate Dyn . 21 , 501 514 .
  16. Epstein , E. 1969 . Stochastic dynamic prediction . Tellus 21 , 739 759 .
  17. Evans , R. , Harrison , M. S. J. , Graham , R. J. and Mylne , K. R. 2000 . Joint medium-range ensembles from the Met Office and ECMWF systems . Mon. Wea. Rev . 128 , 3104 3127 .
  18. Feddersen , H. 2000 . Impact of global sea surface temperature on summer and winter temperatures in Europe in a set of seasonal ensemble simulations . Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc . 126 , 2089 2110 .
  19. Feddersen , H. 2003 . Predictability of seasonal precipitation in the Nordic region . Tellus 55A , 385 400 .
  20. Feddersen , H. and Andersen , U. 2005 . A method for statistical down-scaling of seasonal ensemble predictions . Tellus 57A , 398 408 .
  21. Feddersen , H. , Navarra , A. and Ward , M. 1999 . Reduction of model systematic error by statistical correction for dynamical seasonal prediction . J. Climate 12 , 1974 1989 .
  22. Fraedrich , K. and Leslie , L. M. 1987 . Combining predictive schemes in short-term forecasting . Mon. Wea. Rev . 115 , 1640 1644 .
  23. Fraedrich , K. and Smith , N. 1989 . Combining predictive schemes in long-range forecasting . J. Climate 2 , 291 294 .
  24. Fritsch , J. M. , Hilliker , J. , Ross , J. and Vislocky , R. L. 2000 . Model consensus . Wea. Forecasting 15 , 571 582 .
  25. Hagedorn , R. , Doblas-Reyes , E J. and Palmer , T. N. 2005 . The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting - I. Basic concept . Tellus 57A , 219 233 .
  26. Hamill , T. and Colucci , S. J. 1998 . Verification of Eta-RSM ensemble probabilistic precipitation forecasts . Mon. Wea. Rev . 126 , 711 724 .
  27. Harrison , M. S. J. , Palmer , T. N. , Richardson , D. S. , Buizza , R. and Petroliagis , T. 1995 . Joint ensembles from the UKMO and ECMWF models. In: ECMWF Seminar Procedings: Predictability, Vol . 2 , pp. 61 120 . ECMWF, Reading , UK .
  28. Hartmann , H. C. , Pagano , T. C. , Sorooshian , S. and Bales , R. 2002 . Confidence builders: evaluating seasonal climate forecasts for user perspectives . Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc . 83 , 683 698 .
  29. Jochec , K. , Mjelde , J. , Lee , A. and Conner , J. 2001 . Use of seasonal climate forecasts in rangeland-based livestock operations in west Texas . J. Appl. Meteorol . 40 , 1629 1639 .
  30. Jolliffe , I. T. and Stephenson , D. B. 2003 . Forecast Verification: A Practitioner’s Guide in Atmospheric Science . Wiley , New York .
  31. Kharin , V. V. and Zwiers , E W. 2002 . Climate predictions with multi-model ensembles . J. Climate 15 , 793 799 .
  32. Kharin , V. V. and Zwiers , E W. 2003a . Improved seasonal probability forecasts . J. Climate 16 , 1684 1701 .
  33. Kharin , V. V. and Zwiers , F. W. 2003b . On the roc score of probability forecasts . J. Climate 16 , 4145 4150 .
  34. Krishnamurti , T. N. , Kishtawal , C. M. , LaRow , T. E. , Bachiochi , D. R. , Zhang , Z. and co-authors. 1999 . Improved weather and seasonal climate forecasts from multi-model superensemble . Science 285 , 1548 1550.
  35. Krishnamurti , T. N. , Kishtawal , C. M. , Zhang , Z. , LaRow , T. E. , Bachiochi , D. R. and co-authors. 2000. Multi-model ensemble forecasts for weather and seasonal climate . J. Climate 13 , 4196 4216.
  36. Marletto , V. , Zinoni , E , Criscuolo , L. , Fontana , G. , Marchesi , S. and co-authors. 2005. Evaluation of downscaled DEMETER multi-model ensemble seasonal hindcasts in northen Italy by means of a model of wheat growth and soil water balance . Tellus 57A , this issue .
  37. Mason , S. J. 2004 . On using climatology as a reference strategy in the Brier and ranked probability skill scores . Mon. Wea. Rev . 132 , 1891 1895 .
  38. Mason , S. J. and Graham , N. E. 1999 . Conditional probabilities, relative operating characteristics, and relative operating levels . Wea. Forecasting 14 , 713 725 .
  39. Mason , S. J. , Goddard , L. , Graham , N. E. , Yulaeva , E. , Sun , L. and co-authors . 1999 . The IRI seasonal climate prediction system and the 1997/98 El Niiio event . Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc . 80 , 1853– 1873 .
  40. Metzger , S. , Latif , M. and Fraedrich , K. 2004 . Combining ENSO fore-casts: a feasibility study . Mon. Wea. Rev . 132 , 456 472 .
  41. Michaelsen , J. 1987 . Cross-validation in statistical climate forecast models . J. Climate Appl. Meteor . 26 , 1589 1600 .
  42. Molteni , F. , Buizza , R. , Palmer , T. N. and Petroliagis , T. 1996 . The ECMWF ensemble prediction system: Methodology and validation . Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc . 122 , 73 119 .
  43. Morse , A. P. , Doblas-Reyes , E , Hoshen , M. B. , Hagedorn , R. , Thomson , M. C. and co-authors. 2005. A forecast quality assessment of an end-to-end probalistic multi-model seasonal forecast system using a malaria model . Tellus 57A , 454 - 475 .
  44. Murnane , R. J. , Crowe , M. , Eustis , A. , Howard , S. , Koepsell , J. and co-authors. 2002. The weather risk management industry’s climate forecast and data needs: a workshop report . Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc . 83 , 83 1198 .
  45. Murphy , A. H. 1992 . Climatology, persistence, and their linear combination as standards of reference in skill scores . Wea. Forecasting 7 , 692 698 .
  46. Murphy , A. H. and Winkler , R. 1987 . A general framework for forecast verification . Mon. Wea. Rev . 115 , 1330 1338 .
  47. Palmer , T. N. 2001 . A non-linear dynamical perspective on model error: a proposal for non-local stochastic-dynamic parametrization in weather and climate prediction models . Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc . 127 , 279 304 .
  48. Palmer , T. N. 2002 . Predictability of weather and climate: from theory to practice-from days to decades. In: ECMWF Seminar Procedings: Predictability of Weather and Climate. ECMWF, Reading, UK. pp. 1 - 14 .
  49. Palmer , T. N. and Shukla , J. 2000 . Editorial to DSP/PROVOST special issue . Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc . 126 , 1989 1990 .
  50. Palmer , T. N. , Brankovic , C. and Richardson , D. S. 2000 . A probability and decision-model analysis of PROVOST seasonal multi-model ensemble integrations . Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc . 126 , 2013 2034 .
  51. Palmer , T. N. , Alessandri , A. , Andersen , U. , Cantelaube , P. , Davey , M. and co-authors. 2004. Development of a European multi-model ensemble system for seasonal to interannual prediction (DEMETER). Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc . 85 , 85 872 .
  52. Pavan , V. and Doblas-Reyes , E J. 2000 . Multi-model seasonal hindcasts over the Euro-Atlantic: skill scores and dynamical features . Climate Dyn . 16 , 611 625 .
  53. Pavan , V , Marchesi , S. , Morgillo , A. , Cacciamani , C. and Doblas-Reyes , E J. 2005 . Downscaling of DEMETER winter seasonal hindcasts over northern Italy . Tellus 57A , 424 434 .
  54. Peng , P. , Kumar , A. , van den Dool , H. and Barnston , A. G. 2002 . An analysis of multi-model ensemble predictions for seasonal climate anomalies. J. Geophys. Res . 107 , doi: 10.1029/2002JDO02712 .
  55. Rajagopalan , B. , Lall , U. and Zebiak , S. E. 2002 . Categorical climate forecasts through regularization and optimal combination of multiple GCM ensembles . Mon. Wea. Rev . 130 , 1792 1811 .
  56. Richardson , D. S. 2001 . Measures of skill and value of ensemble prediction systems, their interrelationship and the effect of ensemble size . Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc . 127 , 2473 2489 .
  57. Sarda , J. , Plaut , G. , Pires , C. and Vautard , R. 1996 . Statistical and dynamical long-range atmospheric forecasts: experimental comparison and hybridization . Tellus 48A , 518 537 .
  58. Sarewitz , D. , Pielke R. A. Jr , and Byerly , R . Jr . 2000 . Prediction: Science, Decision Making and the Future of Nature . Island Press, Washington , DC .
  59. Shukla , J. , Anderson , J. , Baumhefner , D. , Brankovic , C. , Chang , Y. and co-authors. 2000. Dynamical seasonal prediction . Bull. Am. Meteorol Soc . 81 , 81 2606 .
  60. Silverman , B. 1986 . Density Estimation for Statistics and Data Analysis . Chapman and Hall , New York .
  61. Stefanova , L. and Krishnamurti , T. N. 2002 . Interpretation of seasonal climate forecast using Brier skill score, the Florida State University superensemble, and the AMIP-I data set . J. Climate 15 , 537 544 .
  62. Stephenson , D. B. , Coelho , C. A. , Doblas-Reyes , F. J. and Balmaseda , M. 2005 . Forecast assimilation: a unified framework for the combination of multi-model weather and climate predictions. Tellus 57A , this issue .
  63. Swets , J. 1973 . The relative operating characteristic in psychology . Science 182 , 990 1000 .
  64. Thompson , P. D. 1977 . How to improve accuracy by combining inde-pendent forecasts . Mon. Wea. Rev . 105 , 228 229 .
  65. Thornes , J. and Stephenson , D. B. 2001 . How to judge the quality and value of weather forecast products . MeteoroL AppL 8 , 307 314 .
  66. Tracton , M. S. and Kalnay , E. 1993 . Operational ensemble prediction at the National Meteorological Center: practical aspects . Wea. Forecast-ing 8 , 379 398 .
  67. Vislocky , R. L. and Fritsch , J. M. 1995 . Improved model output statistics forecast through model consensus . Bull. Am. MeteoroL Soc . 76 , 1157 1164 .
  68. Vislocky , R. L. and Young , G. S. 1989 . The use of perfect prog forecasts to improve model output statistics forecasts of precipitation probabil-ity . Wea. Forecasting 4 , 202 209 .
  69. von Storch , H. 1999 . On the use of inflation in statistical downscaling . J. Climate 12 , 3505 3506 .
  70. von Storch , H. and Zwiers , F. W. 1999 . Statistical Analysis in Climate Research . Cambridge University Press , Cambridge , 494 pp.
  71. Willcs , D. S. 1995 . Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences . Academic Press , New York .
  72. Yun , W. , Stefanova , L. , Mitra , A. , Vijayakumar , T. , Dewar , W. and co-authors. 2005. A multi-model superensemble algorithm for seasonal climate prediction using DEMETER forecasts . Tellus 57A , 280 - 289 .
Language: English
Page range: 234 - 252
Submitted on: Apr 6, 2004
Accepted on: Sep 24, 2004
Published on: Jan 1, 2005
Published by: Stockholm University Press
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services

© 2005 Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Renate Hagedorn, T. N. Palmer, published by Stockholm University Press
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.