The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting – I. Basic concept

Renate Hagedorn; Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes; T. N. Palmer

doi:10.3402/tellusa.v57i3.14657

The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting – I. Basic concept

Tellus

Volume 57 (2005): Issue 3

By: Renate Hagedorn, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes and T. N. Palmer

Open Access

|Jan 2005

Abstract

The DEMETER multi-model ensemble system is used to investigate the rationale behind the multi-model concept. A comprehensive documentation of the differences in the single and multi-model performance in the DEMETER hindcast data set is given. Both deterministic and probabilistic diagnostics are used and a variety of analyses demonstrate the improvements achieved by using multi-model instead of single-model ensembles. In order to understand the reason behind the multi-model superiority, basic scenarios describing how the multi-model approach can improve over singlemodel skill are discussed. It is demonstrated that multi-model superiority is caused not only by error compensation but in particular by its greater consistency and reliability.

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Articles in this issue

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v57i3.14657 | Journal eISSN: 3035-9554

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Language: English

Page range: 219 - 233

Submitted on: Apr 6, 2004

Accepted on: Sep 24, 2004

Published on: Jan 1, 2005

Published by: Stockholm University Press

In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services

© 2005 Renate Hagedorn, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, T. N. Palmer, published by Stockholm University Press
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Volume 57 (2005): Issue 3