A method for statistical downscaling of seasonal ensemble predictions

Henrik Feddersen; Uffe Andersen

doi:10.3402/tellusa.v57i3.14656

A method for statistical downscaling of seasonal ensemble predictions

Tellus

Volume 57 (2005): Issue 3

By: Henrik Feddersen and Uffe Andersen

Open Access

|Jan 2005

Abstract

A model output statistics based method for downscaling seasonal ensemble predictions is outlined, and examplesof ensemble predictions of precipitation and 2-m temperature are verified against observing stations in Scandinavia, Europe, north-western America, the contiguous United States and Australia. The downscaling from seasonal ensemblepredictions from coupled ocean/atmosphere general circulation models to daily precipitation time series for individualobserving stations is performed in three steps: (i) a spatial downscaling of ensemble mean seasonal means from dynamicalmodel output to station level by means of patterns derived from a singular value decomposition analysis of model outputand observations; (ii) application of the downscaling transformation to the model output ensemble and subsequentcalibration of the downscaled ensemble; (iii) a stochastic generation of daily precipitation conditioned on predictionsof the probability of a wet day in the season and daily persistence. In the majority of the examples, the downscaling isfound to provide more skilful predictions than the raw dynamical model output.

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Articles in this issue

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v57i3.14656 | Journal eISSN: 3035-9554

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Language: English

Page range: 398 - 408

Submitted on: Mar 30, 2004

Accepted on: Jul 26, 2004

Published on: Jan 1, 2005

Published by: Stockholm University Press

In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services

© 2005 Henrik Feddersen, Uffe Andersen, published by Stockholm University Press
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Volume 57 (2005): Issue 3