Skip to main content
Have a personal or library account? Click to login
Predicting areas of sustainable error growth in quasigeostrophic flows using perturbation alignment properties Cover

Predicting areas of sustainable error growth in quasigeostrophic flows using perturbation alignment properties

By:  and    
Open Access
|Jan 2004

References

  1. Barkmeijer , J. 1992 . Local error growth in a barotropic model . Tellus 44A , 314 323 .
  2. Barnier , B. , Hua , B. L. and Leprovost , C. 1991 . On the catalytic role of high baroclinic modes in eddy-driven large-scale circulations . J. Phys. Oceanogr 21 , 976 997 .
  3. Buizza , R. and Palmer , T. N. 1995 . The singular-vector structure of the atmospheric general circulation. J. Atmos. Sc i . 52 , 1434 1450 .
  4. Buizza , R. , Tribbia , J. , Molteni , F. and Palmer , T. 1993 . Computation of optimal unstable structures for a numerical weather prediction model . Tellus 45A , 388 407 .
  5. Farrell , B. F. 1990 . Small error dynamics and the predictability of atmospheric flows. J. Atmos. Sc i . 53 , 2409 2416 .
  6. Farrell , B. F. and Ioannou , P. J. 1996 . Generalized stability theory. Part I: autonomous operators. J. Atmos. Sc i . 53 , 2025 2040 .
  7. Frederilcsen , J. S. 1997 . Adjoint sensitivity and finite-time normal mode disturbances during blocking. J. Atmos. Sc i . 54 , 1144 1165 .
  8. Frederilcsen , J. S. 2000 . Singular vectors, finite-time normal modes, and error growth during blocking. J. Atmos. Sc i . 57 , 312 333 .
  9. Hamill , T. M. , Snyder , C. and Morss , R. E. 2000 . A comparison of probablistic forecasts from bred, singular-vector, and perturbed observation ensembles. Mon. Wea. Re v . 128 , 1835 1851 .
  10. Houtelcamer , P. L. and Derome , J. 1995 . Methods for ensemble prediction. Mon. Wea. Re v . 123 , 2181 2196 .
  11. Houtelcamer , P. L. and coauthors . 1996 . A system simulation approach to ensemble prediction. Mon. Wea. Re v . 124 , 1225 1242 .
  12. Jimenez , J. , Wray , A. A. , Saffman , P. G. and Rogallo , R. S. 1993 . The structure of intense voracity in isotropic turbulence . J. Fluid Mech . 255 , 65 90 .
  13. Lapeyre , G. , Klein , P. and Hua , B. L. 1999 . Does the traceur gradient vector align with the strain eigenvectors in 2D turbulence . Phys. Fluids A 11 , 3729 3737 .
  14. Legras , B. and Vautard , R. 1996 . A guide to Lyapunov vectors. Proc. ECMWF Sem. on Predictability Vol. 1 , ECMWF, ReadingUnited Kingdom , 143 - 156 .
  15. Leith , C. E. 1974 . Theoretical skill of Monte-Carlo forecasts. Mon. Wea. Re v . 102 , 409 418 .
  16. Lorenz , E. N. 1965 . A study of the predictability of a 28-variable atmospheric model . Tellus 17 , 321 333 .
  17. Mak , M. and Cai , M. 1989 . Local barotropic instability. J. Atmos. Sc i . 46 , 3289 3311 .
  18. Molteni , E , Buizza , R. , Palmer , T. N. and Petroliagis , T. 1996 . The ECMWF ensemble prediction system: Methodology and validation . Quart. J. Roy. Meteor Soc . 122 , 73 120 .
  19. Moore , A. M. and Mariano , A. J. 1999 . The dynamics of error growth and predictability in a model of the Gulf Stream. Part I: Singular vector analysis . J. Phys. Oceanogr 29 , 158 176 .
  20. Moore , A. M. 1999 . The dynamics of error growth and predictability in a model of the Gulf Stream. Part II: Ensemble prediction . J. Phys. Oceanogr . 29 , 762 778 .
  21. Patil , D. J. , Hunt , B. R. , Kalnay , E. , Yorke , J. A. and Ott , E. 2001 . Local low dimensionality of atmospheric dynamics . Phys. Rev. Lett . 86 , 5878 .
  22. Rivière , G. , Hua , B. L. and Klein , P. 2003 . Perturbation growth in terms of barotropic alignment properties . Quart. J. Roy. Meteor Soc . 129 , 2613 2635 .
  23. Schmitz , W. J. and Holland , W. R. 1986 . Observed and modeled mesoscale variability near the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio Extension . J. Geophys. Res . 91 , 9624 9638 .
  24. Snyder , C. 1999 . Error growth in flows with finite-amplitude waves or coherent structures. J. Atmos. Sc i . 56 , 500 506 .
  25. Snyder , C. and Joly , A. 1998 . Development of perturbations within a growing baroclinic wave . Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc . 124 , 1961 1983 .
  26. Snyder , C. and Hamill , T. M. 2003 . Leading lyapunov vectors of a turbulent baroclinic jet in a quasigeostrophic model. J. Atmos. Sc i . 60 , 683 688 .
  27. Snyder , C. , Hamill , T. M. and Trier , S. B. 2003 . Linear evolution of error covariances in a quasigeostrophic model. Mon. Weather Re v . 131 , 189 205 .
  28. Thompson , P. D. 1957 . Uncertainty of initial state as a factor in the predictability of large-scale atmospheric flow patterns . Tellus 9 , 275 295 .
  29. Toth , Z. and Kalnay , E. 1993 . Ensemble forecasting at NMC: The generation of perturbations . Bull. Amer Meteor Soc . 74 , 2317 2330 .
  30. Toth , Z. and Kalnay , E. 1997 . Ensemble forecasting at NCEP and the breeding method. Mon. Wea. Re v . 125 , 3297 3319 .
  31. Vannitsem , S. and Nicolis , C. 1997 . Lyapunov vectors and error growth patterns in a T21L3 quasigeostrophic model. J. Atmos. Sc i . 54 , 347 361 .
Language: English
Page range: 441 - 455
Submitted on: Apr 25, 2003
Accepted on: Apr 20, 2004
Published on: Jan 1, 2004
Published by: Stockholm University Press
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services

© 2004 G. Rivière, B. L. Hua, published by Stockholm University Press
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.