Skip to main content
Have a personal or library account? Click to login
Tentative probabilistic temperature scenarios for northern Europe Cover

Tentative probabilistic temperature scenarios for northern Europe

Tellus
Volume 56 (2004): Issue 2
By:   
Open Access
|Jan 2004
References

References

  1. Allen , M. R. , Stott , P. A. , Mitchell , J. E B. , Schnur , R. and Delworth , T. L. 2000 . Quantifying the uncertainty in forecasts of anthropogenic climate changes . Nature 407 , 617 – 620 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  2. Anderson , T. W. 1958 . An Introduction to Multivariate Statistical Analysis. 1st edn. Wiley , New York .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  3. Barnett , T. P. 1999 . Comparison of near-surface air temperature variability in 11 coupled global climate models . J. Climate 12 , 511 – 518 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  4. Barnett , T. P. and Preisendorfer , R. W. 1987 . Origins and levels of monthly and seasonal forecast skill for United States surface air temperatures determined by canonical correlation analysis. Mon. Wea. Re v . 115 , 1825 – 1850 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  5. Beckmann , B.-R. and Buishand , T. A. 2002 . Statistical downscaling relationships for precipitation in the Netherlands and north Germany . Int. J. Climatol . 22 , 15 – 32 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  6. Benestad , R. E. 1999 . Conversion of the NCEP re-analysis data to the netCDF format and quality control. KLIMA 31/99. DNMI, PO Box 43 Blindern, 0313 Oslo, Norway.
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  7. Benestad , R. E. 2000 . Analysis of gridded sea level pressure and 2-meter temperature for 1873–1998 based on UEA and NCEP re-analysis II. KLIMA 03/00. DNMI, PO Box 43 Blindern, 0313 Oslo, Norway.
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  8. Benestad , R. E. 2001 . A comparison between two empirical downscaling strategies. Int. J. Climatol . 21 , 1645 – 1668 . DOI 10 . 1002/joc . 703 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  9. Benestad , R. E. 2002a . Empirically downscaled multi-model ensemble temperature and precipitation scenarios for Norway . J. Climate 15 , 3008 – 3027 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  10. Benestad , R. E. 2002b . Empirically downscaled temperature scenarios for northern Europe based on a multi-model ensemble . Climate Res . 21 , 105 – 125 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  11. Benestad , R. E. 2003 . What can present climate models tell us about climate change? Climatic Change . 59 , 311 – 332 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  12. Benestad , R. E. , Hanssen-Bauer , I. , Skaugen , T. E. and Førland , E. J. 2002a . Associations between the sea-ice and the local climate on Svalbard. KLIMA 07/02. met. no, PO Box 43 Blindern, 0313 Oslo, Norway.
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  13. Benestad , R. E. , Hanssen-Bauer , I. and Førland , E. J. 2002b . Empirically downscaled temperature scenarios for Svalbard. Atmos. Sci. Lett . September 18 ,
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  14. Biau , G. , Zorita , E. , von Storch , H. and Wackernagel , H. 1999 . Estimation of precipitation by kriging in EOF space . J. Climate 12 , 1070 – 1085 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  15. Bretherton , C. S. , Smith , C. and Wallace , J. M. 1992 . An intercomparison of methods for finding coupled patterns in climate data . J. Climate 5 , 541 – 560 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  16. Busuioc , A. , Chen , D. and Hellström , C. 2001 . Performance of statistical downscaling models in GCM validation and regional climate change estimates: application for Swedish precipitation . Int. J. Climatol . 21 , 557 – 578 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  17. Christensen , O. B. , Christensen , J. H. , Machenhauer , B. and Botzet , M. 1998 . Very high-resolution climate simulations over Scandinavia-present climate . J. Climate 11 , 3204 – 3229 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  18. Christensen , J. H. , Räisdnen , J. , Iversen , T. , Bjørge , D. , Christensen , O. B. and Rummukainen , M. 2001 . A synthesis of regional climate change simulations-a Scandinavian perspective . Geophys. Res. Lett . 28 ( 6 ), 1003 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  19. Corte-Real , J. , Qian , B. and Xu , H. 1998 . Regional climate change in Portugal: precipitation variability associated with large-scale atmospheric circulation . Int. J. Climatol . 18 , 619 – 635 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  20. Deliang , C. and Hellstriim , C. 1999 . The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on the regional temperature variability in Sweden: spatial and temporal variations . Tellus 51A , 505 – 516 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  21. Ellner , S. P. 2001 . Review of R, Version 1.1.1 . Bull. Ecol. Soc. Am . 82 , 127 – 128 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  22. Flury , B. 1988 . Common Principal Components and Related Multivariate Models, Wiley Series in Probability and Mathematical Statistics . Wiley , New York .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  23. Forest , C. E. , Stone , P. H. , Sokolov , A. P. , Allen , M. R. and Webster , M. D. 2002 . Quantifying uncertainties in climate system properties with the use of recent climate observations . Science 295 , 113 – 117 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  24. Frich , P. , Alexandersson , H. , Ashcroft , J. , Dahlström , B. , Demarée , G. R. , Drebs , A. , van Engelen , A. F. V. , Førland , E. J. , Hanssen-Bauer , I. , Heino , R. , Jónsson , T. , Jonasson , K. , Nordli , P. Ø. , Schmidth , T. , Steffensen , R , Tuomenvirta , H. and Tveito , O. E. 1996 . North Atlantic Climatological Dataset (NACD Version I)-Final Report . Scientific Report 1. DMI, Copenhagen , Denmark .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  25. Gebhardt , A. 2000 . The SGEOSTAT package, v.1.0–10. URL: http://crans-projectorg/. A geostatistical Package for R (“GNU S-plus”) ported from S-plus (J.J. Majure).
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  26. Gentleman , R. and Ihalca , R. 2000 . Lexical scope and statistical computing . J. Computal. Graphical Statist . 9 , 491 – 508 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  27. Glahn , H. R. 1968 . Canonical correlation and its relationship with discriminant analysis and multiple regression. J. Atmos. Sc i . 25 , 23 – 31 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  28. Grotch , S. and MacCracken , M. 1991 . The use of general circulation models to predict regional climate change . J. Climate 4 , 286 – 303 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  29. Haugen , J. E. , Bjørge , D. and Nordeng , T. E. 1999 . A 20-year climate change experiment with HIRHAM, using MPI boundary data. In: Reg-Clim. General Technical Report (eds Iversen , T. and Høiskar , B. A. K ), 37–44, no. 3. NILU: http://www.nilu.no/regclim/ .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  30. Hellström , C. , Chen , D. , Achberger , C. and Räisanen , J. 2001 . Comparison of climate change scenarios for Sweden based on statistical and dynamical downscaling of monthly precipitation . Climate Res . 19 , 45 – 55 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  31. Heyen , H. , Zorita , E. and von Storch , H. 1996 . Statistical downscaling of monthly mean North Atlantic air-pressure to sea level anomalies in the Baltic Sea . Tellus 48A , 312 – 323 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  32. Holland , M. M. , Bitz , C. M. and Weaver , A. J. 2001 . The influence of sea ice physics on simulations of climate change . Geophys. Res. Lett . 106 , 19 , 639–19 , 655 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  33. Houghton , J. T. , Ding , Y. , Griggs , D. J. , Noguer , M. , van der Linden , P. J. , Dai , X. , Maskell , K. and Johnson , C. A. 2001 . Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of IPCC. International Panel on Climate Change (available from www.ipcc.ch).
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  34. Huth , R. 2002 . Statistical downscaling of daily temperature in Central Europe . J. Climate 15 , 1731 – 1742 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  35. Huth , R. and Kyselý , J. 2000 . Constructing site-specific climate change scenarios on a monthly scale . Theor Appl. Climatol . 66 , 13 – 27 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  36. Kalnay , E. , Kanamitsu , M. , Kistler , R. , Collins , W. , Deaven , D. , Gandin , L. , Iredell , M. , Saha , S. , White , G. , Wollen , J. , Zhu , Y. , Chelliah , M. , Ebisuzalci , W. , Higgins , W. , Janowiak , J. , Mo , K. C. , Ropelewski , C. , Wang , J. , Leetmaa , A. , Reynolds , R. , Jenne , R. and Joseph , D. 1996. The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project. Bull. Amer Meteoral Soc . 77 ( March ), 437 - 471 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  37. Kidson , J. W. and Thompson , C. S. 1998 . A comparison of statistical and model-based downscaling techniques for estimating local climate variations . J. Climate 11 , 735 – 753 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  38. Kilsby , C. G. , Cowpertwait , P. P. P. , O’ Connel , P. E. and Jones , P. D. 1998 . Predicting rainfall statistics in England and Wales using atmospheric circulation variables . Int. J. Climate 18 , 523 – 539 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  39. Kutzbach , J. 1967 . Empirical eigenvectors of sea-level pressure, surface temperature, and precipitation complexes over North America . J. Appl. Meterol . 6 , 791 – 802 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  40. Lorenz , E. N. 1956 . Empirical Orthogonal Functions and Statistical Weather Prediction . Scientific Report 1. Department of Meteorology , MIT, USA .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  41. Matheron , G. 1963 . Principles of geostatistics . Economic Geol . 58 , 1246 – 1266 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  42. Murphy , J. 1999 . An evaluation of statistical and dynamical techniques for downscaling local climate . J. Climate 12 , 2256 – 2284 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  43. Murphy , J. 2000 . Predictions of climate change over Europe using statistical and dynamical downscaling techniques . Int. J. Climatol . 20 , 489 – 501 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  44. North , G. R. , Bell , T. L. and Cahalan , R. F. 1982 . Sampling errors in the estimation of empirical orthogonal functions. Mon. Wea. Re v . 110 , 699 – 706 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  45. Oshima , N. , Kato , H. and Kadokura , S. 2002 . An application of statistical downscaling to estimate surface air temperature in Japan . J. Geophys. Res . 107 ( D10 ), ACL–14 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  46. Palmer , T. N. and Räisänen , J. 2002 . Quantifying the risk of extreme seasonal precipitation events in a changing climate . Nature 415 , 512 – 514 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  47. Palmer , T. N. , Branckovic , C. and Richardson , D. S. 2000 . A probability and decision-model analysis of PROVOST seasonal multi-model ensemble integrations . Q. J. R. Met. Soc . 126 , 2013 – 2034 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  48. Preisendorfer , R. W. 1988 . Principal Component Analysis in Meteorology and Oceanology . Elsevier , Amsterdam .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  49. Räisänen , J. 2001a . CO2-induced climate change in CMIP2 experiments: quantification of agreement and role of internal variability . J. Climate 14 , 2088 – 2104 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  50. Räisänen , J. 2001b . Intercomparison of 19 global climate change simulations from an Arctic perspective. In: Report from the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment Modeling and Scenario Workshop. (eds Källen , E. , Kattsov , V. , Walsh , J. and Weatherhead , E. ), 11–13. ACIA Secretariat, PO Box 757740, Fairbanks, AK 99775-7740 ( http : //www.acia.uatedu) .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  51. Räisänen , J. 2002 . CO2-induced changes in interannual temperature and precipitation variability in 19 CMIP experiments . J. Climate 15 , 2395 – 2411 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  52. Räisänen , J. and Alexandersson , H. 2003 . A probabilistic view on recent and near future climate change in Sweden . Tellus 55A , 113 – 125 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  53. Räisänen , J. and Palmer , T. N. 2001 . A probability and decision-model analysis of a multimodel ensemble of climate change simulations . J. Climate 14 , 3212 – 3226 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  54. Rigor , I. G. , Wallace , J. M. and Colony , R. L. 2002 . Response of Sea Ice to the Arctic Oscillation . J. Climate 15 , 2648 – 2663 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  55. Schubert , S. 1998 . Downscaling local extreme temperature change in south-eastern Australia from the CSIRO MARK2 GCM . Int. J. Climatol . 18 , 1419 – 1438 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  56. Sengupta , S. K. and Boyle , J. S. 1993 . Statistical Intercomparison of Global Climate Models: a Common Principal Component Approach . Technical Report 13. PCMDI , Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory , California, USA ( http://www-pcmdi.11nIgov/pcmdi/pubs/pdf/13.pdf ).
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  57. Sengupta , S. and Boyle , J. S. 1998 . Using common principal components in comparing GCM simulations . J. Climate 11 , 816 – 830 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  58. Stott , P. A. , Tett , S. F. B. , Jones , G. S. , Allen , M. R. , Ingram , W. J. and Mitchell , J. F. B. 2001 . Attribution of twentieth century temperature change to natural and anthropogenic causes . Climate Dynam . 17 , 1 – 21 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  59. Tett , S. F. B. , Stott , P. A. , Allen , M. R. , Ingram , W. J. and Mitchell , J. F. B. 1999 . Causes of twentieth-century temperature change near the Earth’s surface . Nature 399 , 569 – 572 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  60. von Storch , H. , Zorita , E. and Cubasch , U. 1993a . Downscaling of global climate change estimates to regional scales: an application to Iberian rainfall in wintertime . J. Climate 6 , 1161 – 1171 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  61. von Storch , H. , Zorita , E. and Cubasch , U. 1993b . Downscaling of global climate change estimates to regional scales: an application to Iberian rainfall in wintertime . J. Climate 6 , 1161 – 1171 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  62. Wilby , R. L. 1997 . Non-stationarity in daily precipitation series: Implications for GCM down-scaling using atmospheric circulation indices . Int. J. Climate 17 , 439 – 454 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  63. Wilby , R. L. , Hassan , H. and Hanaki , K. 1998 . Statistical downscaling of hydrometeorological variables using general circulation model output . J. Hydrology 205 , 1 – 19 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  64. Wilks , D. S. 1995 . Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences . Academic Press, Orlando , FL .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  65. Zorita , E. and von Storch , H. 1997. A Survey of Statistical Downscaling Results. Technical Report 97/E/20. GKSS .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
  66. Zorita , E. and von Storch , H. 1999 . The analog method as a simple statistical downscaling technique: comparison with more complicated methods . J. Climate 12 , 2474 – 2489 .
    Search in Google ScholarBack to article
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v56i2.14397 | Journal eISSN: 3035-9554
Journal RSS Feed
Language: English
Page range: 89 - 101
Submitted on: Oct 31, 2002
Accepted on: Jun 13, 2003
Published on: Jan 1, 2004
Published by: Stockholm University Press
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services

© 2004 Rasmus E. Benestad, published by Stockholm University Press
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Volume 56 (2004): Issue 2
Previous article
Next article