Linear stability analysis of the three-dimensional thermally-driven ocean circulation: application to interdecadal oscillations

What can we learn from performing a linear stability analysis of the large-scale ocean circulation? Can we predict from the basic state the occurrence of interdecadal oscillations, such as might be found in a forward integration of the full equations of motion? If so, do the structure and period of the linearly unstable modes resemble those found in a forward integration? We pursue here a preliminary study of these questions for a case in idealized geometry, in which the full nonlinear behavior can also be explored through forward integrations. Specifically, we perform a three-dimensional linear stability analysis of the thermally-driven circulation of the planetary geostrophic equations. We examine the resulting eigenvalues and eigenfunctions, comparing them with the structure of the interdecadal oscillations found in the fully nonlinear model in various parameter regimes. We obtain a steady state by running the time-dependent, nonlinear model to equilibrium using restoring boundary conditions on surface temperature. If the surface heat fluxes are then diagnosed, and these values applied as constant flux boundary conditions, the nonlinear model switches into a state of perpetual, finite amplitude, interdecadal oscillations. We construct a linearized version of the model by empirically evaluating the tangent linear matrix at the steady state, under both restoring and constant-flux boundary conditions. An eigen-analysis shows there are no unstable eigenmodes of the linearized model with restoring conditions. In contrast, under constant flux conditions, we find a single unstable eigenmode that shows a striking resemblance to the fully-developed oscillations in terms of three-dimensional structure, period and growth rate. The mode may be damped through either surface restoring boundary conditions or sufficiently large horizontal tracer diffusion. The success of this simple numerical method in idealized geometry suggests applications in the study of the stability of the ocean circulation in more realistic configurations, and the possibility of predicting potential oceanic modes, even weakly damped, that might be excited by stochastic atmospheric forcing or mesoscale ocean eddies.