Seasonal predictability of tropical rainfall: probabilistic formulation and validation

Michel Déqué

doi:10.3402/tellusa.v53i4.12223

Seasonal predictability of tropical rainfall: probabilistic formulation and validation

Tellus

Volume 53 (2001): Issue 4

By: Michel Déqué

Open Access

|Jan 2001

Anderson , J. L . 1997 . The impact of dynamical con-straints on the selection of initial conditions for ensemble predictions: low-order perfect model results . Mon. Wea. Rev . 11 , 2969 – 2983 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Brankovic , C. and Palmer , T. N . 2000 . Seasonal skill and predictability of ECMWF PROVOST ensembles . Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc . 126 , 2035 – 2068 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Blackmon , M. L. , Geisler , J. E. and Pitcher E. J . 1983 . A general circulation model study of January climate anomaly pattern associated with interannual variation of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature . J. Atmos. Sci . 40 , 1410 – 1425 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Bougeault , P . 1985 . A simple parameterization of the large-scale effects of cumulus convection . Mon. Wea. Rev . 113 , 2108 – 2121 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Brier , G. W . 1950 . Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probabilities . Mon. Wea. Rev . 78 , 1 – 3 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Déqué , 1997 . Ensemble size for numerical seasonal forecasts . Tellus 49A , 74 – 86 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Déqué , M. and Piedelievre , J. P. 1995 . High resolution climate simulation over Europe. Clim. Dyn . 11 , 321 – 339.
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Dequé , M. , Royer , J. F. and Stroe , R . 1994 . Formulation of gaussian probability forecast based on model extended-range integrations . Tellus 46A , 52 – 65 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Doblas-Reyes , F. J. , Déqué , M. and Piedelievre , J. P . 2000 . Multi-model spread and probabilistic seasonal forecasts in PROVOST . Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc . 126 , 2069 – 2088 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Douville , H. , Planton , S. , Royer , J. F. , Stephenson , DB. ., Tyteca , S. , Kergoat , L. , Lafont S. and. Betts , R. A. 2000 . The importance of vegetation feedbacks in doubled-0O2 time-slice experiments . J. Geophys. Res . 105 , 14 , 841 – 14 , 861.
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Epstein , E. S . 1969 . A scoring system for probability forecasts of ranked categories . J. App!. Meteor . 8 , 985 – 987 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Gibson , J. K. , Milberg , P. , Uppala , S. , Hernandez , A. and Serano , E. 1997 . ERA description . ECMWF Re-analysis project report series. ECMWF, Shinfield Park, Reading, RG2 9AX, UK.
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Hoffman , N. R. and Kalnay , E . 1983 . Lagged average forecasting, an alternative to Monte Carlo forecasting . Tellus 35A , 100 – 118 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Houtekamer , P. L. and Derome , J . 1995 . Methods for ensemble prediction . Mon. Wea. Rev . 123 , 2181 – 2196 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Lau , N. C . 1985 . Modelling the seasonal dependence of the atmospheric response to observed El Nifios in 1962-76 . Mon. Wea. Rev . 113 , 1970 – 1996 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Lott , F . 1999 . Alleviation of stationary biases in a GCM through a mountain drag parameterization scheme and a simple representation of mountain lift forces . Mon. Wea. Rev . 125 , 788 – 801 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Lott , F. and Miller , M. J . 1997 . A new subgrid-scale orographic drag parametrization: its formulation and testing . Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc . 123 , 101 – 127 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Molteni , F. , Buizza , R. , Palmer , T. N. and Petroliagis , T . 1996 . The ECMWF ensemble prediction system: Methodology and validation . Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc . 122 , 73 – 199 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Morcrette , J. J. 1990 . Impact of changes to the radiation transfer parameterizations plus cloud optical proper-ties in the ECMWF model. Mon. Wea. Rev . 118 , 847 – 873.
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Murphy , A. H . 1973 . A new vector partition of the prob-ability score . J. App!. Meteor . 12 , 595 – 600 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Owen , J. A. and Palmer , T. N . 1987 . The impact of El Nifio on an ensemble of extended-range forecasts . Mon. Wea. Rev . 115 , 2103 – 2117 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Palmer , T. N. and Anderson , D. L.T . 1994 . The prospects for seasonal forecasting — a review paper . Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc . 120 , 755 – 793 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Palmer , T. N. , Brankovic , C. and Richardson , D. S . 2000 . A probability and decision-model analysis of PROV-OST seasonal multi-model integrations. Q. .1. R. Met-eorol . Soc. 126 , 2013 – 2034 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Ricard , J. L. and Royer , J. F. 1993 . A statistical cloud scheme for use in an AGCM. Ann. Geophysicae 11 , 1095 – 1115.
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Shukla , J . 1998 . Predictability in the midst of chaos: a scientific basis for climate forecasting . Science 282 , 728 – 731 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Shukla , J. and Wallace , J. M . 1983 . Numerical simulation of the atmospheric response to equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies . J. Atmos. Sci . 40 , 1613 – 1630 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Wilks , D. S . 1995 . Statistical methods in the atmospheric sciences . Academic Press. 467 pp.
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Xie , P. and Arkin , P. A . 1996 . Analyses of global monthly precipitation using gauge observations, satellite estim-ates, and numerical model predictions . J. Climate 9 , 840 – 858 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article