Significant change of extratropical natural variability and potential predictability associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation
By: Wilbur Y. Chen
References
-
Barnett
, T. P. 1995. Monte Carlo climate forecasting. J. Climate, 1005– 1022. -
Barnston
, A. G.and Livezey, R. E. 1987. Classification, seasonality and persistence of low-frequency atmo-spheric circulation patterns.. 115, 1083– 1126. -
Blackmon
, M. L., Wallace, J. M., Lau, N.-C.and Mullen, S. L. 1977. An observational study of the Northern Hemisphere wintertime circulation.. 34, 1040– 1053. -
Blackmon
, M. L., Geisler, J. E.and Pitcher, E. J. 1983. A general circulation model study of January climate anomaly patterns associated with interannual variation of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures.. 40, 1410– 1425. -
Cai
, Mingand Huug. 1992. Low-frequency waves and traveling storm tracks. Part II: Baroclinic component.. 49, 2506– 2524. -
Chen
, Wilbur Y.and Huug. 1995. Low frequency variabilities for widely different basic flows. Tellus, 526– 540. -
Chen
, Wilbur Y.and Huug. 1997a. Asym-metric impact of tropical SST anomalies on atmospheric internal variability over the north Pacific.. 54, 725– 740. -
Chen
, Wilbur Y.and Huug. 1997b. Atmo-spheric predictability of seasonal, annual, and decadal climate means and the role of the ENSO cycle: a model study. J. Climate, 1236– 1254. -
Chervin
, R. M. 1986. Interannual variability and seasonal climate predictability.. 43, 233– 251. -
Cubash
, U. 1985. The mean response of the ECMWF global model to the composite El Nirio anomaly in the extended range prediction experiments . Coupled ocean-atmosphere models(ed. Nihoul, J.). Elsevier Science, pp. 329– 344. -
Dole
, R. M. 1986. Persistent anomalies of the extratropical Northern Hemisphere wintertime circulation: Structure.. 114, 178– 207. -
Holopainen
, E. O., Rontu, L.and Lau, N-C. 1982. The effect of large-scale transient eddies on the time mean flow in the atmosphere., 1972- 1984., J. D.and Wallace, J. M.. 109, 813– 829. -
Hoskins
, B. J.and Karoly, D. J. 1981. The steady linear response of a spherical atmosphere to thermal and orographic forcing., 1179- 1196. Hoskins, B. J., James, I.and White, G. H.. 40, 1595– 1612. -
Kalnay
, E., Kanamitsu, M.et al. 1995. The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull. Amer. Meteo. Soc. 77, 437– 471. -
Kumar
, A., Hoerling, M., Ji, M., Leetmaa, A.and Sardeshmukh, P. 1996. Assessing a GCM’s suitability for making seasonal predictions. J. Clim. 9, 115– 129. -
Lau
, N. C. 1981. A diagnostics study of recurrent meteorological anomalies appearing in a 15-year simulation with a GFDL general circulation model.. 109, 2287– 2311. -
Lau
, N. C. 1988. Variability of the observed midlatitude storm tracks in relation to low-frequency changes in the circulation patterns.. 45, 2718– 2743. -
Leith
, C. E. 1973. The standard error of time-average estimates of climatic means. J. Appl. Meteorol. 12, 1066– 1069 -
Lin
, H.and Derome, J. 1997. On the modification of the high- and low-frequency eddies associated with the PNA anomaly: an observational study. Tellus, 87– 99. -
Madden
, R. A. 1976. Estimates of the natural variability of time-averaged sea-level pressure.. 104, 942– 952. -
Mak
, M.and Cai, M. 1989. Local barotropic instability.. 46, 3289– 3311. -
Miyakoda
, K., Sirutis, J.and Ploshay, J. 1986. One-month forecast experiments - without anomaly boundary forcings.. 114, 2363– 2401. -
Nakamura
, H.and Wallace, J. M. 1990. Observed changes in the baroclinic wave activity during the life cycles of low-frequency circulation anomalies.. 47, 1100– 1117. -
Opsteegh
, J. D.and van den Dool, H. M. 1980. Seasonal differences in the stationary response of a linearized primitive equation model: Prospects for long-range weather forecasting?. 37, 2169– 2185. -
Palmer
, T. N. 1988. Medium and extended range predictability and stability of the Pacific/North American mode. Quart. J. Roy. Met. Soc. 114, 691– 713. -
Rasmusson
, E. M.and Wallace, J. M. 1983. Meteorol-ogical aspects of the El Nifio/Southern Oscillation. Science, 1195– 1202. -
Shukla
, J. 1983. On physical basis and feasibility of monthly and seasonal prediction with a large GCM . Long-range forecasting research publications series, no. 11. WMO, 142– 153. -
Shutts
, G. J. 1983. The propagation of eddies in diffluent jet streams: Eddy vorticity forcing of blocking flow fields. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 109, 737– 761. -
Simmons
, A. J., Wallace, J. M.and Branstator, G. W. 1983. Barotropic wave propagation and instability, and atmospheric teleconnection patterns.. 40, 1363– 1392. -
Smith
, T. M., Reynolds, R. W., Livezey, R. E.and Stokes, D. C. 1996. Reconstruction of historical sea surface temperature using empirical orthogonal functions. J. Climate, 1403– 1420. -
Trenberth
, K. E. 1985. Potential predictability of geo-potential heights over the Southern Hemisphere.. 55, 54– 64. -
Trenberth
, K. E. 1986. An assessment of the impact of transient eddies on the zonal flow during a blocking episode using localized Eliassen—Palm flux diagnos-tics.. 43, 2070– 2087. -
Wallace
, J. M.and Blackmon, M. L. 1983. Observation of low-frequency atmospheric variability.(eds. Hoskins, B. J.and Pearce, R. P.). Academic Press, pp. 55- 94. -
Zwiers
, F. W. 1987. A potential predictability study conducted with an atmospheric general circulation model.. 115, 2957– 2974.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v51i5.14493 | Journal eISSN: 3035-9554
Language: English
Page range: 790 - 802
Submitted on: Sep 14, 1998
Accepted on: Mar 1, 1999
Published on: Jan 1, 1999
Published by: Stockholm University Press
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
© 1999 Wilbur Y. Chen, published by Stockholm University Press
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.