Limits to predictability in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model due to atmospheric noise

Richard Kleeman; Scott B. Power

doi:10.3402/tellusa.v46i4.15642

Limits to predictability in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model due to atmospheric noise

Tellus

Volume 46 (1994): Issue 4

By: Richard Kleeman and Scott B. Power

Open Access

|Jan 1994

Abstract

A coupled-ocean atmosphere model with demonstrated skill in ENSO prediction is used to examine limits to predictability due to stochastic momentum forcing from the atmosphere. Previous estimates of predictability limits in coupled models may be overly optimistic because of the absence of realistic atmospheric noise in the intermediate atmospheric model used. It is found that unavoidable error grows rapidly with a time scale of 4 or so months. It then saturates at a level around 0.5 °C for the Niño 3 region.

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Articles in this issue

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v46i4.15642 | Journal eISSN: 3035-9554

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Language: English

Page range: 529 - 540

Submitted on: Aug 6, 1993

Accepted on: Dec 29, 1993

Published on: Jan 1, 1994

Published by: Stockholm University Press

In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services

© 1994 Richard Kleeman, Scott B. Power, published by Stockholm University Press
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Volume 46 (1994): Issue 4