Simulation and hindcasts of tropical Pacific Ocean interannual variability

Michael K. Davey; Sarah Ineson; Magdalena A. Balmaseda

doi:10.3402/tellusa.v46i4.15490

Simulation and hindcasts of tropical Pacific Ocean interannual variability

Tellus

Volume 46 (1994): Issue 4

By: Michael K. Davey, Sarah Ineson and Magdalena A. Balmaseda

Open Access

|Jan 1994

Abstract

A general circulation model of the tropical Pacific Ocean with a high resolution equatorial region is forced with observed winds from 1961 to 1993 to obtain a simulation of oceanic variability. Observed interannual sea surface temperature anomalies are reproduced well in the central equatorial Pacific, which is a region of strong variations in air—sea interaction. Combined principal oscillation pattern analysis of SST, heat content and zonal wind stress anomalies leads to a dominant interannual mode with a period of about 3 years. An empirical atmosphere model is constructed using the observed wind stress and the dominant simulated SST anomaly patterns. With the OGCM coupled to this statistical atmosphere, several hindcasts are made for the main recent ENSO events. Cold events are reproduced reasonably well, warm events less well: in particular, the 1982/83 hindcasts failed to produce a warming.

References

Balmaseda , M. A . 1993 . Simulacion y prediction del fenomeno ENSO con un modelo acoplado oceano-atmosfera . PhD thesis , University of Alcala , Spain .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Balmaseda , M. A. , Anderson , D. L. T. and Davey , M. K . 1994 . ENSO prediction using a dynamical ocean model coupled to statistical atmospheres . Tellus 46 , 000 – 000 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Barnett , T. P. , Graham , N. E. , Cane , M. A. , Zebiak , S. E. , Dolan , S. C. , O’Brian , J. J. and Legler , D. M . 1988 . On the prediction of the El Niño of 1986-87 . Science 241 , 192 – 196 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Barnett , T. P. , Latif , M. , Graham , N. , Flügel , M. , Pazan , S. and White , W . 1993 . ENSO and ENSO related predictability, Part 1: Prediction of equatorial sea surface temperature with a hybrid coupled ocean-atmosphere model . J. Clim . 6 , 1545 – 1566 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Bengtsson , L. , Schlese , U. , Roeckner , E. , Latif , M. , Barnett , T. P. and Graham , N . 1993 . A two-tiered approach to long-range climate forecasting . Science 261 , 1026 – 1029 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Busalacchi , A. J. , Takeuchi , K. and O’Brien , J. J . 1983 . Interannual variability of the equatorial Pacific revisited . J. Geophys. Res . 88 , 7551 – 7562 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Cane , M. A. and Zebiak , S. E . 1985 . A theory for El Nino and the Southern Oscillation . Science 228 , 1085 – 1087 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Cane , M. A. , Zebiak , S. E. and Dolan , S. C . 1986 . Experimental forecasts of El Niño . Nature 321 , 827 – 832 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Chao , Yi and Philander , S. G. H . 1993 . On the structure of the Southern Oscillation . J. C/im . 6 , 450 – 469 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Cox , M. D . 1984 . A primitive equation, 3-dimensional model of the ocean . GFDL Ocean Group Tech Rep. 1, Geophys. Fluid Dyn. Lab./NOAA, Princeton, NJ, USA.
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Esbensen , S. K. and Kushnir , Y . 1981 . The heat budget of the global ocean: an atlas based on estimates from marine surface observations. Rep. no. 29 , Climate Res. Inst ., Oregon State University , Corvallis .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Fraedrich , K. and Smith , N. R . 1989 . Combining predictive schemes in long-range forecasting . J. Clim . 2 , 291 – 294 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Glantz , M. H. , Katz , R. W. and Nicholls , N . 1991 . Teleconnections linking worldwide climate anomalies. Cambridge Univ. Press, 535 pp.
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Goldenberg , S. D. and O’Brien , J. J . 1981 . Time and space variability of tropical Pacific wind stress . Mon. Weath. Rev . 109 , 1190 – 1207 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Gordon , C. and Corry , R . 1991 . A model simulation of the seasonal cycle in the tropical Pacific Ocean using climatological and modeled surface forcing. J. Geophys. Res . 96 , Cl, 847 - 864 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Hasselmann , K . 1988 . PIPs and POPs: The reduction of complex dynamical systems using Principal Interaction and Oscillation Patterns . J. Geophys. Res . 93 ( D9 ), 11015 – 11021 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Hellerman , S. and Rosenstein , M . 1983 . Normal monthly windstress over the world dean with error estimates . J. Phys. Oceanog . 13 , 1093 – 1104 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Jaeger , L . 1976 . Monthly maps of precipitation for the world ocean. D. Wetterd. Ber . 18 , no. 139 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Kraus , E. B. and Turner , J. S . 1967 . A one-dimensional model of the seasonal thermocline. Part II . Tellus 19 , 98 – 105 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Kubota , M. and O’Brien , J. J . 1988 . Variability of the upper tropical Pacific ocean model . J. Geophys. Res . 93 , 13930 – 13940 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Latif , M. , Barnett , T. P. , Cane , M. A. , Fliigel , M. , Graham , N. E. , Von Storch , H. , Xu , J.-S. and Zebiak , S. E . 1994 . A review on ENSO prediction studies . Climate Dyn . 9 , 167 – 179 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Latif , M. , Sterl , A. , Maier-Reimer , E. and Junge , M. M . 1993a . Climate variability in a coupled GCM. Part 1: the tropical Pacific . J. C/im . 6 , 5 – 21 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Latif , M. , Sterl , A. , Maier-Reimer , E. and Junge , M. M . 1993b . Structure and predictability of the El Niño/ Southern Oscillation phenomenon in a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model . J. C/im . 6 , 700 – 708 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Levitus , S . 1982 . Climatological atlas of the world ocean . NOAA Prof. Paper No. 13.
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Miller , A. J. , Barnett , T. P. and Graham , N. E . 1993 . A comparison of some tropical ocean models: hindcast skill and El Niño evolution . J. Phys. Oceanog . 23 , 1567 – 1591 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Miyakoda , K. , Rosati , A. and Gudgel , R . 1993 . Toward the GCM El Milo simulation . NATO ASI Series, vol . 16 , 125 – 151 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Oberhuber , J. M . 1988 . An atlas based on the COADS dataset . Max-Planck-Institut fiir Meteorologic Report no. 15.
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Pacanowski , R. and Philander , S. G. H . 1981 . Parametrization of vertical mixing in numerical models of the tropical oceans . J. Phys. Oceanog . 11 , 1443 – 1451 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Philander , S. G. H. , Pacanowski , R. , Lau , N.-C. and Nath , M. J . 1992 . Simulation of ENSO with a global atmospheric GCM coupled to a high resolution tropical Pacific Ocean model . J. C/im . 5 , 308 – 329 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Seager , R . 1989 . Modeling tropical Pacific sea surface temperature: 1970-1987 . J. Phys. Oceanog . 19 , 419 – 434 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Stockdale , T . 1992 . Simulation and prediction of tropical SST with a coupled ocean-atmosphere model . DPhil thesis, Oxford University , UK .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Stockdale , T. , Anderson , D. , Davey , M. , Delecluse , P. , Kattenberg , A. , Kitamura , Y. , Latif , M. and Yamagata , T . 1993 . Intercomparison of tropical ocean GCMs . WCRP-79, WMO/TD-No. 545, 90 pp.
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Suarez , M. J. and Schopf , P. S . 1988 . A delayed action oscillator for ENSO . J. Atmos. Sci . 45 , 3283 – 3287 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Von Storch , H. , Burger , G. , Schnur , R. and Von Storch , J.-S . 1993 . Principal oscillation patterns . Max-Planck-Institut fin-Meteorologic Report no. 113.
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Wakata , Y. and Sarachik , E. S . 1991 . On the role of equatorial ocean modes in the ENSO cycle . J. Phys. Oceanog . 21 , 434 – 443 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Wells , N. C. and King-Hele , S . 1990 . Parameterization of tropical ocean heat flux . Q. J. Roy. Met. Soc . 116 , 1213 – 1224 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Wu , D.-H. , Anderson , D. L. T. and Davey , M. K . 1993 . ENSO variability and external impacts . J. Clim . 6 , 1703 – 1717 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Wu , D.-H. , Anderson , D. L. T. and Davey , M. K . 1994 . ENSO prediction experiments using a simple ocean-atmosphere model . Tellus 46A , 465 – 480 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Xu , J.-S. and Von Storch , H . 1990 . Principal oscillation patterns-prediction of the state of ENSO . J. C/im . 3 , 1316 – 1329 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Zebiak , S. E . 1989 . Oceanic heat content variability and El Niño cycles . J. Phys. Oceanog . 19 , 475 – 486 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Zebiak , S. E. and Cane , M. A . 1987 . A model El Niño, Southern Oscillation . Mon. Weath. Rev . 115 , 2262 – 2278 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article

Articles in this issue

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v46i4.15490 | Journal eISSN: 3035-9554

Journal RSS Feed

Language: English

Page range: 433 - 447

Submitted on: Aug 9, 1993

Accepted on: Feb 24, 1994

Published on: Jan 1, 1994

Published by: Stockholm University Press

In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services

© 1994 Michael K. Davey, Sarah Ineson, Magdalena A. Balmaseda, published by Stockholm University Press
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Volume 46 (1994): Issue 4