Forecasting global ENSO-related climate anomalies

T. P. Barnett; L. Bengtsson; K. Arpe; M. Flügel; N. Graham; M. Latif; J. Ritchie; E. Roeckner; U. Schlese; U. Schulzweida; M. Tyree

doi:10.3402/tellusa.v46i4.15487

Forecasting global ENSO-related climate anomalies

Volume 46 (1994): Issue 4

By: T. P. Barnett, L. Bengtsson, K. Arpe, M. Flügel, N. Graham, M. Latif, J. Ritchie, E. Roeckner, U. Schlese, U. Schulzweida and M. Tyree

Open Access

|Jan 1994

Abstract

Long-range global climate forecasts have been made by use of a model for predicting a tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) in tandem with an atmospheric general circulation model. The SST is predicted first at long lead times into the future. These ocean forecasts are then used to force the atmospheric model and so produce climate forecasts at lead times of the SST forecasts. Prediction of the wintertime 500 mb height, surface air temperature and precipitation for seven large climatic events of the 1970—1990s by this two-tiered technique agree well in general with observations over many regions of the globe. The levels of agreement are high enough in some regions to have practical utility.

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Articles in this issue

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v46i4.15487 | Journal eISSN: 3035-9554

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Language: English

Page range: 381 - 397

Submitted on: Aug 6, 1993

Accepted on: Nov 29, 1993

Published on: Jan 1, 1994

Published by: Stockholm University Press

In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services

© 1994 T. P. Barnett, L. Bengtsson, K. Arpe, M. Flügel, N. Graham, M. Latif, J. Ritchie, E. Roeckner, U. Schlese, U. Schulzweida, M. Tyree, published by Stockholm University Press
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Volume 46 (1994): Issue 4