Formulation of gaussian probability forecasts based on model extended-range integrations

M. Déqué; J. F. Royer; R. Stroe

doi:10.3402/tellusa.v46i1.15430

Formulation of gaussian probability forecasts based on model extended-range integrations

Tellus

Volume 46 (1994): Issue 1

By: M. Déqué, J. F. Royer and R. Stroe

Open Access

|Jan 1994

Abstract

A sample of 40, 44-day winter forecasts is used to investigate the predictability of 850 hPa temperature over Europe. These forecasts exhibit a significant skill when averages of day 5 to day 14 and day 15 to day 44 are considered. This skill is, however, very close to that of the trivial climatology forecast. A probability forecast is performed, using a gaussian density with the deterministic forecast for the mean, and the climatological standard deviation (SD). The rank probability score (RPS) of such a forecast is better than, but again very close to, that of the probabilistic climatology forecast. The categorical forecast is also studied as a limit case when the SD is zero. The RPS is minimal when using the conditional probabilities of the verification analyses, but the results are not widely improved when robust estimates are used. The results could be widely improved if we used a suitable SD in our forecasts. However, the attempts to predict a priori the optimal SD lead to non-significant results. The best available probability forecast, in our local gaussian approach, uses, for the mean, the regression of the verification analyses by the model forecasts, and, for the SD, a scaled climatological SD.

References

Alexander , R. C. and Mobley , R. L . 1976 . Monthly average sea surface temperatures and ice-pack limits on a 1° global grid . Mon. Wea. Rev . 107 , 896 – 910 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Brankovic , C. , Palmer , T. N. , Molteni , F. , Tibaldi , S. and Cubasch , U . 1990 . Extended-range predictions with ECMWF models: time lagged ensemble forecasting . Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc . 116 , 867 – 912 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Coiffier , J. , Ernie , Y. , Geleyn , J. F. , Clochard , J. , Hoffman , J. and Dupont , F . 1987 . The operational hemispheric model at the french meteorological service . J. Meteor. Soc. Japan , special NWP symposium volume , 337 – 345 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Déqué , M . 1988 . 10 day predictability of the northern hemisphere winter 500 mb height by the ECMWF operational model . Tellus 40A , 26 – 36 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Déqué , M . 1991 . 44-day ensemble forecasts with the T42-L20 french spectral model . In: Proceedings of ECMWF workshop on new developments in predictability , 13-15 November 1991, ECMWF, Shinfield Park, Reading , 247 – 263 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Déqué , M . 1990 . Impact of prescribed sea surface temperatures on extended range forecasting . J. Marine Systems 1 , 61 – 70 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Déqué , M . 1988 . The probabilistic formulation: a way to deal with ensemble forecasts . Annales Geophysicae 6 , 217 – 224 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Déqué , M . 1988 . Probabilistic monthly mean predictions using forecast ensembles . In: Proceedings of ECMWF workshop on predictability in the medium and extended range , 16-18 May 1988, ECMWF, Shinfield Park, Reading , 119 – 134 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Déqué , M . 1991 . Removing the model systematic error in extended range forecasting . Annales Geophysicae 9 , 242 – 251 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Déqué , M. and Royer , J. F . 1992 . The skill of extended-range extratropical winter dynamical forecasts . J. Climate 5 , 1346 – 1356 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Epstein , E. S . 1969 . A scoring system for probability forecasts of ranked categories . J. Appl. Meteor . 6 , 762 – 769 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Hoffman , N. R. and Kalnay , E . 1983 . Lagged average forecasting, an alternative to Monte Carlo forecasting . Tellus 35A , 100 – 118 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Kalnay , E. and Dalcher , A . 1987 . Forecasting the forecast skill . Mon. Wea. Rev . 115 , 349 – 356 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Leith , C. E . 1974 . Theoretical skill of monte carlo forecasts . Mon. Wea. Rev . 102 , 409 – 418 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Milton , S. F. and Richardson , D. S . 1991 . 30-day dynamical forecasts at the UK Meteorological Office . In: Proceedings of ECMWF workshop on new developments in predictability , 13-15 November 1991 , ECMWF , Shinfield Park, Reading , 205 – 245 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Molteni , F. , Cubasch , U. and Tibaldi , S . 1986 . 30- and 60-day forecast experiments with the ECMWF spectral models . In: Proceedings of ECMWF workshop on predictability in the medium and extended range , 17-19 March 1986 , ECMWF , Shinfield Park, Reading , 51 – 107 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Murphy , A. H. and Daan , H . 1985 . Forecast evaluation . In: Probability, statistics and decision making in the atmospheric sciences , edited by A. H . Murphy and R. W . Katz , Westview Press , London , 379 – 438 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Murphy , A. H. and Epstein , E. S . 1989 . Skill scores and correlation coefficients in model verification . Mon. Wea. Rev . 117 , 572 – 581 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Murphy , J. M . 1990 . Assessment of the practical utility of extended range ensemble forecasts . Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc . 116 , 89 – 125 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Palmer , T. N . 1988 . Medium and extended range predictability and stability of the Pacific/North American mode . Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc . 114 , 691 – 713 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Palmer , T. N. , Brankovic , C. , Molteni , F. and Tibaldi , S . 1990 . Extended range predictions with ECMWF models. I Interannual variability in operational model integrations . Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc . 116 , 799 – 834 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Palmer , T. N. and Tibaldi , S . 1988 . On the prediction of forecast skill . Mon. Wea. Rev . 116 , 2453 – 2480 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Planton , S. , Déqué , M. and Bellevaux , C . 1991 . Validation of an annual cycle experiment with a T42-L20 GCM . Climate Dyn . 5 , 189 – 200 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Roads , J. O . 1989 . Dynamical extended range forecasts of the lower tropospheric thickness . Mon. Wea. Rev . 117 , 3 – 28 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Shea , D. J. and Madden , R. A . 1990 . Potential for long-range prediction of monthly mean surface temperatures over North America . J. Climate 3 , 1444 – 1451 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Sirutis , J. and Miyakoda , K . 1990 . Subgrid scale physics in 1-month forecasts. Part I: experiments with four parameterization packages . Mon. Wea. Rev . 118 , 1043 – 1064 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Stroe , R. and Royer , J. F . 1993 . Comparison of different error growth formulas and predictability estimation in numerical extended-range forecasts . Annales Geophysicae 11 , 296 – 316 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Tracton , M. S. , Mo , K. , Chen , W. , Kalnay , E. , Kistler , R. and White , G . 1989 . Dynamical Extended Range Forecast (DERF) at the National Meteorological Center . Mon. Wea. Rev . 117 , 1604 – 1635 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Yamada , S. , Maeda , S. , Kudo , T. , Iwasaki , T. and Tsuyuki , T . 1991 . Dynamical one-month forecast experiments with the JMA global prediction model . J. Meteor. Soc. Japan 69 , 153 – 159 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article

Articles in this issue

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v46i1.15430 | Journal eISSN: 3035-9554

Journal RSS Feed

Language: English

Page range: 52 - 65

Submitted on: Nov 27, 1992

Accepted on: Jul 26, 1993

Published on: Jan 1, 1994

Published by: Stockholm University Press

In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services

© 1994 M. Déqué, J. F. Royer, R. Stroe, published by Stockholm University Press
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Volume 46 (1994): Issue 1