Abstract
For a fixed forecast range and initial state of an atmospheric model, we present a practical method to determine the error of this initial state which maximizes the ratio of final to initial error. The method uses the adjoint model concept. Numerical results for a simple barotropic model are given. We show on a sample of real cases that. there is a negative correlation between the above ratio and a least square forecast skill. We discuss this result and the use of the method for a priori estimation of the quality of numerical forecasts.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v45i4.14891 | Journal eISSN: 3035-9554
Language: English
Page range: 270 - 280
Submitted on: Mar 19, 1992
Accepted on: Mar 15, 1993
Published on: Jan 1, 1993
Published by: Stockholm University Press
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
© 1993 Bernard Urban, published by Stockholm University Press
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.