Predicted hazard area for a polar low

Karl J. Eidsvik

doi:10.3402/tellusa.v39i4.11768

Predicted hazard area for a polar low

Tellus

Volume 39 (1987): Issue 4

By: Karl J. Eidsvik

Open Access

|Jan 1987

Abstract

Autoregressive models are fitted to 57 polar low trajectories sampled by satellite and weather maps from The Norwegian Sea neighbourhood at approximately Δt = 3 h intervals. The data tentatively suggest that no velocity model is significantly better than a Brownian. When a low has been observed, the predicted probability of a low encounter is estimated to be significant over an area with 800 km characteristic length and width.

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