Statistical prediction of seasonal air temperature over Eurasia

T. P. Barnett; H.-D. Heinz; K. Hasselmann

doi:10.3402/tellusa.v36i2.11476

Statistical prediction of seasonal air temperature over Eurasia

Tellus

Volume 36 (1984): Issue 2

By: T. P. Barnett, H.-D. Heinz and K. Hasselmann

Open Access

|Jan 1984

Abstract

Statistical models for the prediction of seasonal surface air temperature anomalies over Eurasia were constructed. The models were designed to test the relative predictive skill of Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SST), sea level pressure (SLP) and persistence in a cyclostationary setting.

Significant forecast skill was found for the spring season in central and eastern Europe. The main predictors were persistence and SLPs (the north Atlantic oscillation). SSTs had little predictive value. All results were confirmed with independent forecast experiments. The statistical results were attributed to (a) a positive feedback between given winter atmospheric circulation regimes, the snow cover they produce and the snow-induced enhancement/retardation of normal season warming and (b) the persistence of large-scale circulation patterns over the Atlantic Ocean.

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Articles in this issue

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v36i2.11476 | Journal eISSN: 3035-9554

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Language: English

Page range: 132 - 146

Submitted on: Mar 29, 1982

Accepted on: Aug 1, 1983

Published on: Jan 1, 1984

Published by: Stockholm University Press

In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services

© 1984 T. P. Barnett, H.-D. Heinz, K. Hasselmann, published by Stockholm University Press
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Volume 36 (1984): Issue 2