Skip to main content
Have a personal or library account? Click to login
Lagged average forecasting, an alternative to Monte Carlo forecasting Cover

Lagged average forecasting, an alternative to Monte Carlo forecasting

Open Access
|Jan 1983

References

  1. Epstein , E. S. 1969 . Stochastic dynamic prediction . Tellus 21 , 739 759 .
  2. Farago , T. 1978 . Introduction of the characteristic function in stochastic dynamic modelling . Tellus 30 , 335 340 .
  3. Fleming , R. J. 1971 . On stochastic dynamic prediction. I. The energetics of uncertainty and the question of closure . Mon. Weather Rev . 99 , 851 872 .
  4. Fleming , R. J. 1972 . Predictability with and without the influence of random external forces . J. Appl. Meteorol . 11 , 1155 1165 .
  5. Gleeson , T. A. 1970 . Statistical-dynamical predictions . J. Appl. Meteorol . 9 , 333 344 .
  6. Gleeson , T. A. 1981 . A short procedure for statistical-dynamical predictions of weather probabilities . Preprints Seventh Conference on Probability and Statistics in Atmospheric Sciences, November 2-6, 1981, Monterey, California . Boston, MA/U.S.A. : American Meteorological Society , 79 83 .
  7. Halem , M. , Kalnay , E. , Baker , W. E. and Atlas , R. 1982 . An assessment of the FGGE satellite observing system during SOP-1 . Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc . 63 , 407 426 .
  8. Hoffman , R. N. 1981 . Alterations of the climate of a primitive equation model produced by filtering approximations and subsequent tuning and stochastic forcing . J. Atmos. Sci . 38 , 514 530 .
  9. Laurmann , J. A. 1978 . A small perturbation approximation for stochastic dynamic weather prediction . Tellus 30 , 404 417 .
  10. Leith , C. E. 1974a . Theoretical skill of Monte Carlo forecasts . Mon. Weather Rev . 102 , 409 418 .
  11. Leith , C. E. 1974b . Spectral statistical-dynamical fore-cast experiments . The GARP Programme on Numerical Experimentation, Report of the International Symposium on Spectral Methods in Numerical Weather Prediction, Copenhagen, 12-16 August, 1974 . ( Report No. 7 of the GARP Working Group on Numerical Experimentation.) Geneva/Switzerland: WMO , 445 467 .
  12. Leith , C. E. 1978a . Objective methods for weather prediction . Annu. Rev. Fluid Mech . 10 , 107 128 .
  13. Leith , C. E. 1978b . Predictability of climate . Nature 276 , 352 355 .
  14. Leith , C. E. 1980 . Nonlinear normal mode initialization and quasigeostrophic theory . J. Atmos. Sci . 37 , 958 968 .
  15. Leith , C. E. 1982 . Statistical methods for the verification of long and short range forecasts . European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, Seminar 1981, Problems and Prospects in Long and Medium Range Weather Forecasting, 14-18 September , 313 333 .
  16. Lorenz , E. N. 1960 . Energy and numerical weather prediction . Tellus 12 , 364 373 .
  17. Lorenz , E. N. 1965 . A study of the predictability of a 28-variable atmospheric model . Tellus 17 , 321 333 .
  18. Lorenz , E. N. 1969 . The predictability of a flow which possesses many scales of motion . Tellus 21 , 289 307 .
  19. Lorenz , E. N. 1971 . An N-cycle time-differencing scheme for stepwise numerical integration . Mon. Weather Rev . 99 , 644 648 .
  20. Lorenz , E. N. 1977 . An experiment in nonlinear statistical weather forecasting . Mon. Weather Rev . 105 , 590 602 .
  21. Miyakoda , K. and Talagrand , O. 1971 . The assimilation of past data in dynamical analysis . I. Tellus 23 , 310 317 .
  22. Neter , J. and Wasserman . W. 1974 . Applied linear statistical models . London/U.K. : Irwin-Dorsey , xvii + 842 pp.
  23. Nicholls , N. 1980 . Long-range weather forecasting: Value, status and prospects . Rev. Geophys. Space Phys . 18 , 771 788 .
  24. Pitcher , E. J. 1977 . Application of stochastic dynamic prediction to real data . J. A tmos. Sci . 34 , 3 21 .
  25. Seidman , A. N. 1981 . Averaging techniques in long-range weather forecasting . Mon. Weather Rev . 109 , 1367 1379 .
  26. Shukla , J. 1981 . Dynamical predictability of monthly means . J. Atmos. Sci . 38 , 2547 2572 .
Language: English
Page range: 100 - 118
Submitted on: Mar 26, 1982
Accepted on: Aug 2, 1983
Published on: Jan 1, 1983
Published by: Stockholm University Press
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services

© 1983 Ross N. Hoffman, Eugenia Kalnay, published by Stockholm University Press
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.