Stochastically-driven climatic fluctuations in the sea-ice, ocean temperature, CO2 feedback system

Barry Saltzman

doi:10.3402/tellusa.v34i2.10792

Stochastically-driven climatic fluctuations in the sea-ice, ocean temperature, CO2 feedback system

Tellus

Volume 34 (1982): Issue 2

By: Barry Saltzman

Open Access

|Jan 1982

Abstract

A simple climatic feedback system described previously (Saltzman and Moritz, 1980), involving sea-ice extent, mean ocean temperature and atmospheric CO2, is modified in plausible ways to yield (1) a single stable equilibrium with slow periodic damping, and (2) auto-oscillatory (i.e., limit-cycle) behavior. These constitute two primary prototypical possibilities for the deterministic behavior of the real climatic system (others being the existence of multiple equilibria with assorted stabilities). The necessity for including stochastic forcing is discussed, and the role of this forcing in generating sustained irregular and quasi-periodic variability similar to that observed in the real system is illustrated. It is suggested that the spectral and “residence density” signatures of theoretical models such as these may be of value in identifying the deterministic phase space behaviour (e.g., number and nature of equilibria) underlying observed climatic variability, through an inspection of these signatures in real data.

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