Skip to main content
Have a personal or library account? Click to login
Ordinal relationships between measures of the “accuracy and “value” of probability forecasts: preliminary results Cover

Ordinal relationships between measures of the “accuracy and “value” of probability forecasts: preliminary results

By:   
Open Access
|Jan 1972

References

  1. Brier , G. W . 1950 . Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability. Mon. Wea. Rev . 78 , 1 3 .
  2. Brier , G. W. and Allen , R. A . 1951 . Verification of weather forecasts. Compendium of Meteorology, pp. 841-848. American Meteorological Society, Boston.
  3. Epstein , E. S . 1969 . A scoring system for probability forecasts of ranked categories. J. Appl. Meteor. 8, 985 - 987 .
  4. Fishburn , P. C . 1964 . Decision and value theory. Wiley, New York. 451 pp.
  5. Johnson , D. H . 1957 . Forecast verification: a critical survey of the literature. Air Ministry, London. Meteorological Research Committee , M.R.P. No. 1056 . 40 pp .
  6. Murphy , A. H . 1966 . A note on the utility of pro-babilistic predictions and the probability score in the cost-loss ratio decision situation. J. Appl. Meteor . 5 , 534 537 .
  7. Murphy , A. H . 1969 . Measures of the utility of probabilistic predictions in cost-loss ratio decision situations in which knowledge of the cost-loss ratios is incomplete. J. Appl. Meteor . 8 , 863 873 .
  8. Murphy , A. H . 1970 . The ranked probability score and the probability score: a comparison. Mon. Wea. Rev . 98 , 917 924 .
  9. Murphy , A. H . 1971a. On the relationship between the “accuracy” and the “value” of probability forecasts. Preprints of Papers Presented at the International Symposium on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences , pp. 94 - 99 . American Meteorological Society , Boston .
  10. Murphy , A. H . 1971b . The evaluation of probabilis-tic predictions in meteorology . Ann Arbor, University of Michigan, Department of Meteoro-logy and Oceanography , manuscript , unpublished .
  11. Murphy , A. H . 1972 . Measures of the value of probability forecasts in meteorological decision situations . Boulder, Colo., National Center for Atmospheric Research, Advanced Study Pro-gram, manuscript , unpublished .
  12. Murphy , A. H. and Epstein , E. S . 1967 . Verification of probabilistic predictions: a brief review. J. Appl. Meteor . 6 , 748 755 .
  13. Murphy , A. H. and Winkler , R. L . 1970 . Scoring rules in probability assessment and evaluation. Acta Psychol . 34 , 273 286 .
  14. Pontryagin , L. S . 1952 . Foundations of combinatorial topology . Graylock Press , Rochester, N.Y . 99 pp .
  15. Springer , C. E . 1964 . Geometry and analysis of projective spaces. W . H. Freeman , San Francisco . 299 pp .
  16. Stael von Holstein, C.-A. S. 1970. A family of strictly proper scoring rules which are sensitive to distance. J. Appl. Meteor. 9 , 360 - 364 .
  17. Wilks , S. S . 1962 . Mathematical statistics . Wiley , New York . 644 pp .
  18. Winkler , R. L. and Murphy , A. H . 1968 . “Good” probability assessors. J. Appl. Meteor . 7 , 751 758 .
Language: English
Page range: 531 - 542
Submitted on: Oct 15, 1971
Accepted on: Jul 10, 1972
Published on: Jan 1, 1972
Published by: Stockholm University Press
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services

© 1972 Allan H. Murphy, published by Stockholm University Press
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.