Dynamical Prediction of the Arctic Circulation

The results of a series of experimental forecasts of the 500 and 1,000 mb flow patterns over the Arctic during January 1956 are discussed. The forecasts were made by integrating graphically the equations of a simple baroclinic mode. A summary of the performance of the model and an analysis of the errors are presented; some characteristics of the Arctic circulation are deduced from these error patterns. In general, the results suggest that the model is capable of producing useful forecasts over the Arctic.