Stochastic Port Selection Under Correlated Arc Disruptions: Improving Defence Supply Lines in the Nordics
By: Torstein Takvam, Stein W. Wallace and Falko Müller
References
- Ahmadi-Javid, A., Seyedi, P., & Syam, S. S. (2017). A survey of healthcare facility location [Review]. Computers and Operations Research, 79, 223–263. 10.1016/j.cor.2016.05.018
- Anthony, R. N. (1965). Planning and control systems: a framework for analysis. Division of Research, Graduate School of Business Administration, Harvard University.
https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1130282272059584896 - Bardal, K. G. (2017). Impacts of adverse weather on Arctic road transport. Journal of transport geography, 59, 49–58. 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2017.01.007
- Bardal, K. G. (2018). Fremkommelighet på høyfjellstrekninger. Nordlandsforskning.
- Black, J., Fedina, K., & Eken, M. (2024). Evolving Norway’s Role in the NATO Alliance. RAND Corporation.
https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2024/07/evolving-norways-role-in-the-nato-alliance.html - Boeing, G. (2017). OSMnx: New methods for acquiring, constructing, analyzing, and visualizing complex street networks. Computers, environment and urban systems, 65, 126–139. 10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2017.05.004
- Boonmee, C., Arimura, M., & Asada, T. (2017). Facility location optimization model for emergency humanitarian logistics. International journal of disaster risk reduction, 24, 485–498. 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2017.01.017
- Burks, R. E., Moore, J. T., Barnes, J. W., & Bell, J. E. (2010). Solving the theater distribution problem with tabu search. Military Operations Research, 5–26. 10.5711/morj.15.4.5
- Carlsen, H., Tønset, S., Knutsen, M., & Jakobsen, R. (2023). E-tjenesten: – Kan gi utslag i økt spenning. NRK.
https://www.nrk.no/norge/pst_-ingen-grunn-til-a-vaere-mindre-bekymret-for-russland-1.16293088 - Craig, R. R., Lunday, B. J., Hill, R. R., & Nesbitt, P. A. (2015). The military theater distribution network design problem. IIE Annual Conference and Expo 2015.
- Crino, J. R. (2002). A group theoretic tabu search methodology for solving the theater distribution vehicle routing and scheduling problem. Air Force Institute of Technology.
- Crino, J. R., Moore, J. T., Barnes, J. W., & Nanry, W. P. (2004). Solving the theater distribution vehicle routing and scheduling problem using group theoretic tabu search. Mathematical and computer modelling, 39(6–8), 599–616. 10.1016/S0895-7177(04)90543-2
- Dahl, A.-S. (2021). Back to the future: Nordefco’s first decade and prospects for the next. Scandinavian Journal of Military Studies, 4(1), 172–184. 10.31374/sjms.85
- Dönmez, Z., Kara, B. Y., Karsu, Ö., & Saldanha-da-Gama, F. (2021). Humanitarian facility location under uncertainty: Critical review and future prospects. Omega, 102,
102393 . 10.1016/j.omega.2021.102393 - Dovland, J. (2020). Etterforsyning av en landoperasjon. FFI-rapport 20/00264.
- Drexl, M., & Schneider, M. (2013). A survey of location-routing problems. Technical Report LM-2013–03.
- Edvardsen, A., & Martinussen, B. A. M. (2024). NATO’s New Northern Flank: Norway’s Army Chief Expects Great Responsibility. High North News.
https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/natos-new-northern-flank-norways-army-chief-expects-great-responsibility - Esri. (2024). World Terrain Base [Map]. Source: USGS, Esri, TANA, DeLorme, and NPS.
- Fortun, M., & Schweber, S. S. (1993). Scientists and the Legacy of World War II: The Case of Operations Research (OR). Social Studies of Science, 23(4), 595–642.
http://www.jstor.org/stable/285727 . 10.1177/030631293023004001 - Gunter, M. (2022). Some implications of Sweden and Finland joining NATO. The Commentaries, 2(1), 91–100. 10.33182/tc.v2i1.2710
- Gurobi Optimization LLC. (2023). Gurobi Optimizer Reference Manual.
- Hicks IV, R. J. (2019). Network Optimization to Model Random Risk of Supply Chain Disruptions. Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA.
- Husdal, J., & Brathen, S. (2010). Bad locations, bad logistics? How Norwegian freight carriers handle transportation disruptions. WCTR, Lisbon, Portugal.
- Jakobsen, P. V. (2022a). Causal Theories of Threat and Success – Simple Analytical Tools Making it Easier to Assess, Formulate, and Validate Military Strategy. Scandinavian Journal of Military Studies, 5(1), 177–191. 10.31374/sjms.164
- Jakobsen, P. V. (2022b). Introduction: Military Strategy: What is the Use of It? Scandinavian Journal of Military Studies, 5(1). 10.31374/sjms.141
- Johnsen, A. B., & Kristiansen, T. (2022). Peker ut fire nøkkelhavner: Forsvarssjefenes plan for nordisk forsvar. VG.
https://www.vg.no/nyheter/innenriks/i/wAAzM4/peker-ut-fire-noekkelhavner-forsvarssjefenes-plan-for-nordisk-forsvar - Kall, P., & Wallace, S. W. (1994). Stochastic Programming. Wiley.
https://books.google.no/books?id=zvAZAQAAIAAJ - Karatas, M., Yakıcı, E., & Razi, N. (2018). Military Facility Location Problems: A Brief Survey. (pp. 1–27). 10.4018/978-1-5225-5513-1.ch001
- King, A. J., & Wallace, S. W. (2024). Modeling with Stochastic Programming. 10.1007/978-3-031-54550-4
- Kystverket. (2022). Status 2022.
https://www.kystverket.no/globalassets/sjotransport-og-havn/status/kystverket-status-2022.pdf - Lai, C.-M., & Tseng, M.-L. (2022). Designing a reliable hierarchical military logistic network using an improved simplified swarm optimization. Computers & Industrial Engineering, 169,
108153 . 10.1016/j.cie.2022.108153 - Liu, Y., Yuan, Y., Shen, J., & Gao, W. (2021). Emergency response facility location in transportation networks: A literature review. Journal of traffic and transportation engineering (English edition), 8(2), 153–169. 10.1016/j.jtte.2021.03.001
- Lium, A.-G., Crainic, T. G., & Wallace, S. W. (2009). A Study of Demand Stochasticity in Service Network Design. Transportation Science, 43(2), 144–157. 10.1287/trsc.1090.0265
- Lobo, B. J., Brown, D. E., & Grazaitis, P. J. (2019). Long-term forecasting of fuel demand at theater entry points. International Journal of Forecasting, 35(2), 502–520. 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2018.09.001
- Longhorn, D. C., Baybordi, S. V., Van Dyke, J. T., Winter, A. W., & Jakes, C. L. (2022). Determining the best ship loading strategy during military deployments. Journal of Defense Analytics and Logistics, 6(2), 98–119. 10.1108/JDAL-07-2022-0003
- Longhorn, D. C., & Muckensturm, J. R. (2019). Determining nodal capacities for military distribution problems. Journal of Defense Analytics and Logistics, 3(2), 110–130. 10.1108/JDAL-03-2019-0006
- Longhorn, D. C., Muckensturm, J. R., & Baybordi, S. V. (2021). Improving the port selection process during military deployments. Journal of Defense Analytics and Logistics, 5(2), 131–151. 10.1108/JDAL-04-2021-0003
- Longhorn, D. C., & Stobbs, J. D. (2021). A heuristic approach applied to the fleet sizing problem for military ground vehicles. Journal of Defense Analytics and Logistics, 5(1), 2–20. 10.1108/JDAL-03-2020-0005
- Lucas, E. R., & Crosbie, T. (2019). Anti-access/Area denial in the Baltic Sea region. Scandinavian Journal of Military Studies, 2(1), 72–73. 10.31374/sjms.31
- Lund, J. R. (1987). Don’t rock the boat: Reinforcing Norway in crisis and war. The RAND Graduate School.
- Lykke, A. F. (1989). Defining Military Strategy = E + W + M. Military Review, 69(5), 2–8.
https://cgsc.contentdm.oclc.org/digital/collection/p124201coll1/id/504/ - Mara, S. T. W., Kuo, R., & Asih, A. M. S. (2021). Location-routing problem: a classification of recent research. International Transactions in Operational Research, 28(6), 2941–2983. 10.1111/itor.12950
- Moya, J. M., & Valero, M. F. (2017). Port choice in container market: a literature review. Transport Reviews, 37(3), 300–321. 10.1080/01441647.2016.1231233
- Muckensturm, J. R., & Longhorn, D. C. (2019). Assessing the vulnerability of military theater distribution routes. Journal of Defense Analytics and Logistics, 3(1), 60–82. 10.1108/jdal-07-2018-0012
- Nagy, G., & Salhi, S. (2007). Location-routing: Issues, models and methods. European Journal of Operational Research, 177(2), 649–672. 10.1016/j.ejor.2006.04.004
- NATO. (2018). Allied Joint Publication (AJP)-4 Allied Joint Doctrine for Logistics edition B version 1. NATO Standardization Office.
- NATO. (2020). Affied Administrative Publications (AAP)-6 Glossary of Terms and Definitions Edition 2020. NATO Standardization Office.
- NATO. (2022a). Allied Joint Publication (AJP)-1, Allied Joint Doctrine (Edition F Version 1). NATO Standardization Office.
- NATO. (2022b). Allied Joint Publication (AJP)-4.4, Allied Joint Doctrine for Movement (Edition C Version 1). NATO Standardization Office.
- Nilsen, T. (2024). More trouble on Kiruna-Narvik (de)railway shortly after reopening. The Barents Observer.
https://www.thebarentsobserver.com/industry-and-energy/more-trouble-on-kirunanarvik-derailway-shortly-after-reopening/146903 - NRK.no. (2025). Meråkerbanen er stengt etter skred.
https://www.nrk.no/trondelag/merakerbanen-er-stengt-etter-skred-1.17331058 - OSM. (2017). OpenStreetMap contributors. Planet dump retrieved from
https://planet.osm.org . In.https://www.openstreetmap.org - Parola, F., Risitano, M., Ferretti, M., & Panetti, E. (2016). The drivers of port competitiveness: a critical review. Transport Reviews, 37(1), 116–138. 10.1080/01441647.2016.1231232
- Ray, N., & Chapman, K. (2023, October 30, 2023). Seminar on Nordic RSOM: Concept of support, 21st Theatre Sustainment Command. Swedish Defence University RSOM week, Storlien, Sweden.
- Regjeringen.no. (2022). Joint statement on Nordic cooperation in security and defence.
https://www.regjeringen.no/contentassets/4e1ccf0209024cb99a2d839fd299a47f/joint-statement-on-nordic-cooperation-in-security-and-defence.pdf - Regjeringen.no. (2023). Svar på spørsmål om forsyningslinjer i Norden i forbindelse med Nato-utvidelsen.
https://www.regjeringen.no/no/aktuelt/svar-pa-sporsmal-om-sverige-og-finland-i-nato/id2975174/ - Ren, J., Tan, Y. J., & Zheng, X. L. (2014). Distribution network design in battlefield environment with loss consideration. Journal of Chemical and Pharmaceutical Research, 6(3), 1233–1238.
- Salmerón, J., Wood, R. K., & Morton, D. P. (2009). A stochastic program for optimizing military sealift subject attack. Military Operations Research, 14(2), 19–39. 10.5711/morj.14.2.19
- Samferdselsdepartementet. (2024). Nasjonal transportplan 2025–2036. (Meld. St. 14). Retrieved from
https://www.regjeringen.no/no/dokumenter/meld.-st.-14-20232024/id3030714/?ch=2 - Schneider, M., & Drexl, M. (2017). A survey of the standard location-routing problem. Annals of Operations Research, 259, 389–414. 10.1007/s10479-017-2509-0
- Sebbah, S., Ghanmi, A., & Boukhtouta, A. (2013). A column-and-cut generation algorithm for planning of Canadian armed forces tactical logistics distribution. Computers and Operations Research, 40(12), 3069–3079. 10.1016/j.cor.2013.07.002
- Singgih, I. K., & Lee, G. M. (2014). Lower and upper bounds for military deployment planning considering combat. International Journal of Industrial Engineering: Theory Applications and Practice, 21(6), 408–420.
- Skoglund, P., Listou, T., & Ekström, T. (2022). Russian logistics in the Ukrainian war: Can operational failures be attributed to logistics? Scandinavian Journal of Military Studies, 5(1), 99–110. 10.31374/sjms.158
- Steven, A. B., & Corsi, T. M. (2012). Choosing a port: An analysis of containerized imports into the US. Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, 48(4), 881–895. 10.1016/j.tre.2012.02.003
- Tenold, S. (2019). The starting point: A small country, but a major maritime nation. Norwegian Shipping in the 20th Century: Norway’s Successful Navigation of the World’s Most Global Industry, 21–61. 10.1007/978-3-319-95639-8_2
- Toyoglu, H., Karasan, O. E., & Kara, B. Y. (2011). Distribution network design on the battlefield. Naval Research Logistics, 58(3), 188–209. 10.1002/nav.20402
- Tran, N. K., & Haasis, H.-D. (2015). Literature survey of network optimization in container liner shipping. Flexible Services and Manufacturing Journal, 27, 139–179. 10.1007/s10696-013-9179-2
- US ARMY. (2024, 24. April 2024). Army equipment departs America headed for Europe, DEFENDER 24
https://www.europeafrica.army.mil/ArticleViewPressRelease/Article/3730409/army-equipment-departs-america-headed-for-europe-defender-24/ - US Joint Chiefs of Staff. (2000). Joint Publications 4-01.4: Joint Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures for Joint Theater Distribution. 10.21236/ADA434256
- US Joint Chiefs of Staff. (2013a). Joint Publication 1: Doctrine for the Armed Forces of the United States.
- US Joint Chiefs of Staff. (2013b). Joint publication 4-09: Distribution Operations.
- US Joint Chiefs of Staff. (2017). Joint Publications 4-01: The Defense Transportation System.
- Viste, R. H., & Birkemo, G. A. (2023). Geografisk fordeling av sivile ressurser for forsvaret av Norge. FFI-rapport 23/02037.
- Zhao, K., Kumar, A., Harrison, T. P., & Yen, J. (2011). Analyzing the resilience of complex supply network topologies against random and targeted disruptions. IEEE Systems Journal, 5(1), 28–39. 10.1109/jsyst.2010.2100192
DOI: https://doi.org/10.31374/sjms.330 | Journal eISSN: 2596-3856
Language: English
Page range: 220 - 239
Submitted on: Sep 16, 2024
Accepted on: Apr 10, 2025
Published on: May 29, 2025
Published by: Scandinavian Military Studies
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Publication frequency: 1 issue per year
Keywords:
© 2025 Torstein Takvam, Stein W. Wallace, Falko Müller, published by Scandinavian Military Studies
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.