Figure 1
NATO planning process overview.
CUOE stands for Comprehensive Understanding of the Operational Environment.
Figure 2
Risk description (Aven & Thekdi, 2022, p. 24).
Figure 3
Model for risk management (Aven & Thekdi, 2022, p. 202).
Figure 4
Annex D’s Figure D.2 –example of a risk matrix.
Table 1
Documents Analysed, Showing Title, Publishing Year and Assigned References.
| NAME | YEAR | ORIGIN OF AUTHORITY | REFERENCE IN TEXT | CLASSIFICATION |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allied Joint Doctrine | 2022 | NATO Standardization Office | AJP-1 | Not Classified |
| Allied Joint Doctrine for Intelligence, counter intelligence and security | 2020 | NATO Standardization Office | AJP-2 | NATO Unclassified |
| Allied Joint Doctrine for Conduct of Operations | 2019 | NATO Standardization Office | AJP-3 | Not Classified |
| Allied Joint Doctrine for Conduct of Operations – Annex D Risk Management | 2019 | NATO Standardization Office | Annex D | Not Classified |
| Allied Joint Doctrine for Planning of Operations | 2019 | NATO Standardization Office | AJP-5 | Not Classified |
| Allied Joint Doctrine for Planning of Operations Study draft 1 | 2024 | NATO Standardization Office | AJP-5SD | NATO Unclassified |
| Tactical Planning for Land Forces | 2024 | NATO Standardization Office | APP-28 | NATO Unclassified |
| Risk Management | 2023 | NATO Standardization Office | APP-28.1 | NATO Unclassified |
| Comprehensive Operations Planning Directive | 2021 | Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe | COPD | NATO Unclassified |
| Allied Command Operations Strategic Management System | 2020 | Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe | AD015–027 | NATO Unclassified |
| NATO Operations Assessment Handbook | 2022 | Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe | NOAH | NATO Unclassified |
| Allied Command Operations Risk Management User Guide | 2020 | Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe | ASM | NATO Unclassified |
| Risk Management Standard Operating Procedures | 2023 | Headquarter specific | Fenris | NATO Unclassified |
| Risk Management Standard Operating Procedures | 2023 | Headquarter specific | Hugin | NATO Unclassified |
| Risk Management Standard Operating Procedures | 2024 | Headquarter specific | Mjølner | NATO Unclassified |
| Risk Management Standard Operating Procedures | 2021 | Headquarter specific | Munin | NATO Unclassified |
Table 2
NATO’s Interoperability Rating (NATO, 2022a, p. 72).
| LEVELS OF INTEROPERABILITY QUALITATIVE DESCRIPTIONS OF THE LEVELS. | |
|---|---|
| 3 – Integrated | Forces operate together effectively without technical, procedural or human barriers; it is characterized by common networks, capabilities procedures and language. |
| 2 – Compatible | Forces operate together without prohibitive technical, procedural or human barriers; this is characterized by similar or complementary processes and procedures. |
| 1 – Deconflicted | Forces operate in the same operational area in pursuit of a common goal but with limited interaction due to prohibitive technical, procedural and human barriers. |
| 0 – Not interoperable | Forces have no demonstrable interoperability and must operate independently from each other. |
Figure 5
Risk concept analysis framework (RCA).
Figure 6
Data mapped in risk concept analysis framework (Fenris, 2023; Hugin, 2023; Mjølner, 2024; Munin, 2023; NATO, 2019c, 2019d, 2019b, 2020b, 2020a, 2020c, 2021a, 2021b, 2022b, 2022a, 2023a, 2024b, 2024c, 2024a).
Table 3
Comparison of Risk Management Definitions.
| SOURCE | IDENTIFICATION | ASSESSMENT | EVALUATION | PLANNING | TREATMENT | EXPLOITATION | OBJECTIVES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJP-5 | |||||||
| COPD | X | X | X | X | X | ||
| AJP-3 | X | X | X | X | |||
| Annex D | X | X | X | X | |||
| Fenris | X | X | X | ||||
| Hugin | X | X | X | X | |||
| Munin | X | X | X | ||||
| Mjølner | X | X | X | X | |||
| APP28.1 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X |
| ISO 31000 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X |
Table 4
Risk Management Comparison.
| SOURCE | ESTABLISH CONTEXT | RISK IDENTIFICATION | RISK ANALYSIS | RISK EVALUATION | RISK TREATMENT | IMPLEMENT TREATMENT | MONITOR & REVIEW | COMMUNICATION AND CONSULTATION |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJP-5 | X | X | ||||||
| COPD | X | X | X | X | ||||
| Annex D | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | |
| Fenris | X | X | X | X | X | |||
| Hugin | X | X | X | X | X | |||
| Munin | X | X | X | X | X | X | ||
| Mjølner | X | X | X | X | X | |||
| APP28.1 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X |
| ISO 31000 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X |
Table 5
Alignment: Risk Management Documents and Doctrine.
| AJP-5 & COPD – OPERATIONAL PLANNING PROCESS | SOURCE | AJP-3 - HEADQUARTERS DECISION CYCLE | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INITIATION | MISSION ANALYSIS | COURSE OF ACTION DEVELOPMENT | MONITOR | ASSESS | PLAN | DIRECT | |
| / | Annex D | ||||||
| / | / | / | Fenris | X | X | X | X |
| / | Hugin | X | X | X | X | ||
| / | Munin | X | X | X | X | ||
| X | X | X | Mjølner | X | X | X | X |
| / | / | APP28.1 | / | / | / | / | |
[i] X = Instructional reference made, / = Partial reference made & No reference found.
Figure 7
NATO processes and Risk Management framework overviews.
Figure 8
Illustration of Hugin’s dual perspective risk matrix.
Table 6
NATO Risk Management.
| RISK TOPIC | NATO LEVEL OF INTEROPERABILITY | DIALLO’S CHALLENGES TO INTEROPERABILITY |
|---|---|---|
| Conceptual Alignment | Level 1 – Deconflicted | Conceptual Alignment – Not achieved |
| Risk Management | Level 2 – Compatible | Execution Consistency – Partly achieved |
| Risk Communication | Level 1 – Deconflicted | Execution Consistency – Not achieved |