Figure 1
Number of deployments in the sample, by deployment year.
Note: The sample consists of 2,275 former conscripts who underwent enlistment-testing (and subsequently initiated their conscription service) in Sweden during 1990–1999 and who were deployed to Bosnia (for the first time) as peacekeepers at some point during 1993–1999.
Table 1
Descriptive averages.
| VETERANS | ALL POTENTIAL CONTROLS | MATCHED COMPARISONS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cog. ability (1–4) | 0.22 | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| Cog. ability (5) | 0.30 | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| Cog. ability (6–7) | 0.36 | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| Cog. ability (8–9) | 0.11 | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Psy. ability (1–4) | 0.09 | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| Psy. ability (5) | 0.19 | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| Psy. ability (6–7) | 0.53 | 0.40 | 0.52 |
| Psy. ability (8–9) | 0.18 | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| Med. test A | 0.85 | 0.63 | 0.82 |
| Med. test B | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| Med. test C/D | 0.08 | 0.18 | 0.10 |
| Female | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Foreign | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.04 |
| Primary school | 0.07 | 0.09 | 0.03 |
| Parent high educ. | 0.39 | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| Parents low educ. | 0.09 | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| Metro. area | 0.27 | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| Parental (t–1) | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| East Sweden | 0.33 | 0.41 | 0.33 |
| North Sweden | 0.24 | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| South Sweden | 0.44 | 0.35 | 0.44 |
| Study (t–1) | 0.39 | 0.45 | 0.37 |
| Study (t–2) | 0.54 | 0.58 | 0.54 |
| Study (t–3) | 0.70 | 0.71 | 0.73 |
| Social aid (t–1) | 0.10 | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| Social aid (t–2) | 0.10 | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| Social aid (t–3) | 0.07 | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| Unemployed (t–1) | 0.18 | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| Work disab. (t–1) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Earnings (t–1) | 865.67 | 823.09 | 852.66 |
| Earnings (t–2) | 662.22 | 620.01 | 654.27 |
| Earnings (t–3) | 502.77 | 479.48 | 484.38 |
| Age at deployment | 22.17 | 22.17 | 22.17 |
| Observations | 2275 | 1086754 | 9039 |
[i] Note: This table shows descriptive averages for the sample of 2,275 veterans deployed to Bosnia 1993–1999; a pool of potential controls consisting of non-veterans matched by birth-cohort and calendar year of observation only; and a matched comparison group of birth-cohort peers who did not serve. Variables measured one year before the deployment year, or at the time of enlistment testing, unless stated otherwise.
Figure 2
Observed outcomes for the sample of veterans deployed to Bosnia in the 1990s.
Note: This figure shows how observed outcomes evolve over time for the sample of 2,275 veterans deployed to Bosnia 1993–1999, starting one year before their (first) deployment year. Year 0 refers to the calendar year when a veteran was deployed for the first time. An individual is considered long-term unemployed if he or she was registered as (full-time or part-time) unemployed at the Swedish Public Employment Service, or enrolled in an active labour market programme, for 180 days or more during a year. Work disability is defined as either receiving disability pension or having 60 or more (net) days of sick leave during a year. Social welfare assistance indicates whether the individual’s household received any amount of temporary financial support during a year.
Figure 3
Distributions of the propensity scores before and after matching.
Figure 4
Impact of deployment to Bosnia on labour market marginalisation.
Note: The left panel of this figure shows the observed outcomes for a sample of 2,275 veterans deployed to Bosnia in the 1990s (solid line) together with the outcomes for the matched comparison group of birth-cohort peers who did not serve (dashed line). The right panel shows the estimated average treatment effect on the treated (ATT), together with 95% confidence intervals. All outcome variables are indicator variables (i.e., dummy variables). Year 0 refers to the calendar year when a veteran was deployed for the first time.
Figure 5
Impact of deployment to Bosnia on labour market marginalisation, 1 and 20 years after deployment, by deployment year.
Note: This figure shows the estimated effect of deployment on labour market outcomes for the sample of 2,275 veterans deployed to Bosnia 1993–1999, 1 year and 20 years after deployment, by deployment year, together with 95% confidence intervals. All outcome variables are indicator variables (i.e., dummy variables).
Table A1
Definitions of variables.
| VARIABLE | DESCRIPTION |
|---|---|
| Cog. ability (several categories) | General cognitive ability measured on the military enlistment test day. Discrete stanine units (1–9), where 9 is the highest score. Weighted overall test score (g-factor) from four subtests of verbal, spatial, logic inductive and technical ability. Dummies for whether the individual scored 1–4; 5; 6–7; or 8–9. |
| Psych. ability (several categories) | Psychological assessment of the individual’s ability to fulfill the psychological requirements of military service and armed combat, based on a personal interview conducted by a psychologist on the military enlistment test day. Discrete Stanine units (1–9), where 9 is the highest score. Dummies for whether the individual scored 1–4; 5; 6–7; or 8–9. |
| Med. test = A, B, C/D | Dummies for the individual’s military medical serviceability. “A” represents medical requirements for military training in a combat position with the highest demands on physical mobility (e.g., ranger units); “B” represents medical requirements for combat units with high mobility (e.g., armoured units); “C/D” represents medical requirements for combat units with reduced mobility (e.g., infantry units) or technical positions in combat units (e.g., vehicle mechanic). Measured on enlistment test day. |
| Female | Dummy for whether the individual is female. |
| Foreign | Dummy for whether the individual is born outside Sweden and/or has two parents born outside Sweden. |
| Primary school | Dummy for whether the individual’s highest education is primary school. Measured 1 year before deployment. |
| Parent high educ. | Dummy for whether the individual has at least one parent with postsecondary education, three years or longer. Measured 1 year before deployment. |
| Parents low educ. | Dummy for whether both parent’s highest education is primary school or below. Measured 1 year before deployment. |
| Metro. area | Dummy for whether the individual is residing in a metropolitan area, as defined by the Swedish Association of Local Authorities and Regions (SKR). Measured 1 year before deployment. |
| East/North/South | Dummy for regional residence. Measured 1 year before deployment. |
| Parental leave | Dummy for whether the individual received any parental leave benefits. Measured 1 year before deployment. |
| Study | Dummy for whether the individual received any student grants. Measured 1, 2 and 3 years before deployment. |
| Unemp. | Dummy for whether the individual was registered as (full-time or part-time) unemployed with the Swedish Public Employment Service, or enrolled in an active labour market program, for 180 days or more during a year. Measured 1 year before deployment. |
| Social aid | Dummy for whether the individual’s household received any social welfare assistance during a year. Measured 1, 2 and 3 years before deployment. |
| Work disab. | Dummy for whether the individual received disability pension or had 60 or more (net) days of sick leave during a year. Measured 1 year before deployment. |
| Earnings | Annual earnings in 100s of SEK expressed in 2019 prices. Measured 1, 2 and 3 years before deployment. |
Table A2
Logit model estimation of the probability of deployment to Bosnia, conditional on observed pre-deployment characteristics.
| COEF. | S.E. | |
|---|---|---|
| Cog. ability (1–4) | –0.369 | (0.0600) |
| Cog. ability (6–7) | –0.0953 | (0.0528) |
| Cog. ability (8–9) | –0.289 | (0.0769) |
| Psy. ability (1–4) | –0.686 | (0.0852) |
| Psy. ability (6–7) | 0.454 | (0.0558) |
| Psy. ability (8–9) | 0.796 | (0.0712) |
| Med. test A | 1.148 | (0.0964) |
| Med. test B | 0.657 | (0.176) |
| Med. test C/D | 0.259 | (0.118) |
| Female | 0.493 | (0.182) |
| Foreign | 0.00251 | (0.108) |
| Primary school | –0.988 | (0.0900) |
| Parent high educ. | –0.0522 | (0.0469) |
| Parents low educ. | –0.203 | (0.0759) |
| Metro. area | –0.247 | (0.0515) |
| Parental (t–1) | –2.487 | (0.579) |
| North Sweden | 0.171 | (0.0612) |
| South Sweden | 0.451 | (0.0495) |
| Study (t–1) | –0.728 | (0.0584) |
| Study (t–2) | –0.377 | (0.0632) |
| Study (t–3) | 0.167 | (0.0616) |
| Social aid (t–1) | 0.166 | (0.0827) |
| Social aid (t–2) | 0.143 | (0.0877) |
| Social aid (t–3) | –0.0661 | (0.0920) |
| Unemployed (t–1) | –0.0657 | (0.0632) |
| Work disab. (t–1) | –1.771 | (0.708) |
| Earnings (t–1) | –0.000118 | (0.0000325) |
| Earnings (t–2) | 0.00000379 | (0.0000125) |
| Earnings (t–3) | 0.00000396 | (0.00000854) |
| Year = 1993 | –0.710 | (0.107) |
| Year = 1995 | 0.0587 | (0.0736) |
| Year = 1996 | –0.213 | (0.0773) |
| Year = 1997 | –0.660 | (0.0817) |
| Year = 1998 | –0.421 | (0.0770) |
| Year = 1999 | –1.035 | (0.0907) |
| Age | –0.0425 | (0.0168) |
| Constant | –5.324 | (0.396) |
| Observations | 1201188 |
[i] Note: This table shows the output from a logit regression on pooled cross sections of annual data for the full sample of treated and untreated individuals. The dependent variable is 1 if an individual was deployed to Bosnia, and 0 otherwise. Subsequent observations of first time veterans are censored. The coefficients represent the contribution of each listed covariate to the log odds that an individual is deployed. The predictions from this model are used to construct the propensity score used for matching. Standard errors in parentheses.
Table A3
The impact of deployment to Bosnia on labour market marginalisation, 1 and 20 years after deployment, using bootstrapped standard errors and different matching algorithms.
| NUMBER OF NEIGHBOURS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 10 | |
| Social aid (t + 1) | –0.029 | –0.030 | –0.032 |
| (0.006) | (0.005) | (0.004) | |
| [0.008] | [0.006] | [0.005] | |
| Social aid (t + 20) | –0.002 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| (0.003) | (0.002) | (0.002) | |
| [0.003] | [0.002] | [0.002] | |
| Unemp. (t + 1) | 0.056 | 0.063 | 0.066 |
| (0.011) | (0.009) | (0.009) | |
| [0.012] | [0.011] | [0.009] | |
| Unemp. (t + 20) | –0.014 | –0.010 | –0.009 |
| (0.004) | (0.003) | (0.003) | |
| [0.005] | [0.004] | [0.003] | |
| Work disab. (t + 1) | –0.004 | –0.002 | –0.002 |
| (0.003) | (0.002) | (0.002) | |
| [0.003] | [0.002] | [0.002] | |
| Work disab. (t + 20) | –0.011 | –0.010 | –0.009 |
| (0.005) | (0.003) | (0.003) | |
| [0.006] | [0.004] | [0.004] | |
[i] Note: This table reports estimates of the ATT 1 and 20 years after deployment using different matching algorithms. Alternative matching algorithms include: nearest neighbour matching using 1 nearest neighbour; nearest neighbour matching using 4 nearest neighbours (the preferred matching algorithm); and nearest neighbour matching using 10 nearest neighbours. Standard errors in parentheses. Bootstrapped standard errors based on 500 replications are reported in brackets.