Time as a Causal Factor and Network Analysis: The Circulation of Astronomy Knowledge and the Investment of Book Printers in the Early Modern Period

In this paper, we investigate the role of historical time in understanding causal relationships that can be formulated quantitatively, both in reconstructing an entire historical process and in examining the historical actors involved. Our focus is on the publication of Nicolaus Copernicus’s De revolutionibus orbium coelestium in 1543. We analyze the interplay between the circulation of knowledge and the key figures responsible for this publication, Georg Rheticus and Johannes Petreius, considering the perspectives of both the historians and the actors themselves. Methodologically, we combine network analysis and agent-based modelling. The research utilizes the Sphaera-Sacrobosco dataset. Through network analysis, we identify different phases in the circulation of knowledge, particularly noting a phase of acceleration beginning in 1531. These findings are then used to simulate a dynamic early-modern book marketplace that allows for the investigation of book printers’ behaviors based on shifting trends. Our results suggest a causal relationship between the dynamics of these networks and the actors’ perception thereof in their decision, based significantly on economic incentives, to publish new and innovative texts, including Copernicus’s work.