Dynamic Impacts of Exchange Rates, Trade Openness, and GDP Growth on Turkiye’s Service Imports: A NARDL Approach
By: Baris Ulker
References
- Abasiakan, L. T., Sani, Z., & Obiezue, T. O. (2021). Determinants of Nigeria’s International Trade in Services. Economic and Financial Review, 59(1), 29-48.
- Akça, E. E. (2024). The impact of digital services trade restrictiveness on trade in telecommunications, computer, and information services: evidence from OECD countries. Journal of Management and Economics Research, 22(2), 1-13. https://doi.org/10.11611/yead.1367503
- Allen, D. E., & McAleer, M. (2021). A Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) Analysis of the FTSE and S&P500 Indexes. Risks, 9(11), 195. https://doi.org/10.3390/risks9110195
- Bahmani-Oskooee, M. (1985). Devaluation and the J-Curve: Some Evidence from LDCs. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 67(3), 500–504. https://doi.org/10.2307/1925980
- Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Karamelikli, H. (2021). Financial and insurance services trade and role of the exchange rate: An asymmetric analysis. Economic Analysis and Policy, 72, 358-367. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2021.09.001
- Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Baek, J. (2023). Korean trade in 10 service industries and role of the won? An asymmetric analysis. International Economic Journal, 37(1), 93-119. https://doi.org/10.1080/10168737.2022.2153899
- Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Halicioglu, F., & Karamelikli, H. (2024). Singapore’s trade in financial and insurance services and the role of the exchange rate: An asymmetric analysis. The International Trade Journal, 38(2), 171-183. https://doi.org/10.1080/08853908.2023.2165202
- Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Saha, S. (2024). On The Link Between Indian Rupee and Its Trade in Services: An Asymmetric Analysis. Journal of Economic Development, 49(1). https://doi.org/10.35866/caujed.2024.49.1.001
- Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Halicioglu, F. (2025). Turkish trade in eight service categories and role of the exchange rate. Economic Change and Restructuring, 58(4), 68. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10644-025-09912-0
- Bamieh, O., Bripi, F., & Fiorini, M. (2021). Services trade and labor market outcomes: Evidence from Italian firms. Review of International Economics, 30(3), 673-701. https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12581
- Banerjee, A., Dolado, J., & Mestre, R. (1998). Error-correction mechanism tests for cointegration in a single-equation framework. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 19(3), 267-283. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616
- Benz, S., Fiorini, M., Jaax, A., & van Lieshout, E. (2023). Right here, right now? New evidence on the economic effects of services trade reform (OECD Trade Policy Papers No. 271). OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/1159657f-en
- Boonman, T. M., Litsios, I., & Pilbeam, K. (2025). The Impact of Changes in Real Income and the Real Effective Exchange Rate on Trade in Goods and Services. International Journal of Finance & Economics. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.70087
- Borchert, I., Gootiiz, B., Magdeleine, J., Marchetti, J. A., Mattoo, A., Rubio, E., & Shannon, E. (2019). Applied services trade policy: A guide to the Services Trade Policy Database and the Services Trade Restrictions Index (WTO Staff Working Paper No. ERSD-2019-14). World Trade Organization. https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/reser_e/ersd201914_e.htm
- Central Bank of the Republic of Turkiye (2024). Electronic Data Delivery System [Database]. https://evds2.tcmb.gov.tr/index.php
- Cheng, K. M. (2021). Financial and insurance services trade: Does exchange rate or income matter?. Economic inquiry, 59(1), 494-509. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12943
- Copeland, B., & Mattoo, A. (2007). The Basic Economics of Service Trade. In A. Mattoo, R. M. Stern, & G. Zanini (Eds.), A Handbook of International Trade in Services (pp. 84-132). Oxford University Press.
- Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Econometrica, 49(4), 1057–1072. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912517
- Dong, H. H., Yong, C. C., & Yong, S. L. (2023). The determinants of China’s services trade. The Chinese Economy, 56(3), 182-193. https://doi.org/10.1080/10971475.2022.2132701
- Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2024). Federal Reserve Economic Data [Dataset]. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/
- Goldstein, M. & Khan, M. S. (1985). Income and Price Effects in Foreign Trade. In R. W. Jones, & P. B. Kenen (Eds.), Handbook of International Economics: Volume 2 (pp. 1041-1105). North Holland. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1573-4404(85)02011-1
- Gyimah-Brempong, K., & Baah-Boateng, W. (2021). Service Exports and Youth Unemployment in Africa. Journal of African Development, 22(1), 166-196. https://doi.org/10.5325/jafrideve.22.1.0166
- Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263-291.
- Karagöz, K. (2025). Detecting asymmetric impact of exchange rate on international trade in services: Evidence from Türkiye. Dicle Akademi Dergisi, 5(1), 59-74. https://doi.org/10.61964/dade.1637561
- Kang, M. (2021). Examining the Impact of ICT Access and ICT Use on Trade in Services: Focused on Selected Service Categories. Journal of Internet Services and Information Security, 11(3), 58-75. https://doi.org/10.22667/JISIS.2021.08.31.058
- Kimura, F., & Lee, H. H. (2006). The gravity equation in international trade in services. Review of world economics, 142(1), 92-121. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10290-006-0058-8
- Koca, A. & Sevinç, D. (2023). Döviz Kuru Volatilitesinin Hizmet Ticareti Üzerindeki Etkisi: EAGLE Ülkeleri. Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 41(4), 630-649, https://doi.org/10.17065/huniibf.1265078
- Lassmann, A. (2020), “Services trade and labour market outcomes”, OECD Trade Policy Papers, No. 239, OECD Publishing, Paris. http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/1079852d-en
- Magee, S. P. (1973). Currency contracts, pass-through, and devaluation. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1973(1), 303-325. https://doi.org/10.2307/2534091
- Nkoro, E., & Uko, A. K. (2016). Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration technique: application and interpretation. Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods, 5(4), 63-91.
- Nordås, H. K., & Rouzet, D. (2015). The impact of services trade restrictiveness on trade flows: First estimates, OECD Trade Policy Papers, No. 178, OECD Publishing. http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/5js6ds9b6kjb-en
- OECD. (2025). OECD Economic Surveys: Türkiye 2025. OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/d01c660f-en
- Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616
- Phillips P. C. B., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335–346. https://doi.org/10.2307/2336182
- Shin, Y., Yu, B., & Greenwood-Nimmo, M. (2014) Modeling Asymmetric Cointegration and Dynamic Multipliers in a Nonlinear ARDL Framework. In Horrace, W.C. and Sickles, R.C., (Eds.), Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt: Econometric Methods and Applications (pp. 281-314), Springer Science & Business Media. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4899-8008-3_9
- Tang, Y., Zhang, Y., & Findlay, C. (2013). What explains China’s rising trade in services? Empirical analysis with a modified gravity model and panel data. Chinese Economy, 46(6), 7-31. https://doi.org/10.2753/CES1097-1475460601
- Turkish Statistical Institute. (2024). Foreign trade statistics, December 2023 (News Bulletin No. 49630). https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Bulten/Index?p=Foreign-Trade-Statistics-December-2023-49630&dil=2
- Turkish Statistical Institute. (2024). International trade in services statistics, 2023 (News Bulletin No. 53656). https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Bulten/Index?p=International-Trade-in-Services-Statistics-2023-53656&dil=2
- United Nations, International Monetary Fund, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Statistical Office of the European Union, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, World Tourism Organization, World Trade Organization. (2011). Manual on Statistics of International Trade in Services 2010 (MSITS 2010). United Nations Publication.
- Xiang, X., & Zhao, J. (2025). Enhancing sustainable development through digital service trade liberalization: analyzing the effects and mechanisms on bilateral imports. Sustainability, 17(5), 1823. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17051823
- Xu, J., Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Karamelikli, H. (2022). China’s trade in services and role of the exchange rate: An asymmetric analysis. Economic Analysis and Policy, 74, 747-757. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2022.04.006
- Wooldridge, J. M. (2016). Introductory econometrics: A modern approach (6th ed.). Cengage Learning.
- World Bank. (2025). World development indicators [Data set]. World Bank Databank. https://data-bank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators
- World Trade Organization. (n.d.). World trade statistics. Retrieved December 10, 2025, from https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/world_trade_statistics_e.htm
- World Trade Organization. (2019). World Trade Report 2019 – The Future of Services Trade. WTO Publications. https://doi.org/10.30875/7e6f8c91-en
- World Trade Organization. (2025). International Trade Statistics [Dataset]. https://stats.wto.org/
- Yanikkaya, H. (2003). Trade openness and economic growth: a cross-country empirical investigation. Journal of Development Economics, 72(1), 57-89. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3878(03)00068-3
- Yin, Z. H., & Choi, C. H. (2025). How does digitalization affect trade in goods and services? Evidence from G20 countries. Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 16(1), 3614-3638. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13132-024-02029-1
- Yu, S., & Sun, S. (2019). Belt and Road Initiative in China: the impact of real openness on service trade. American Journal of Industrial and Business Management, 9(6), 1431-1445. https://doi.org/10.4236/ajibm.2019.96094
- Zivot, E., & Andrews, D. W. K. (1992). Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil- Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 20(1), 25–44. https://doi.org/10.1198/073500102753410372
Language: English
Page range: 67 - 89
Published on: Jun 6, 2026
Published by: University of Zagreb, Faculty of Economics & Business
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Related subjects:
© 2026 Baris Ulker, published by University of Zagreb, Faculty of Economics & Business
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License.