Abstract
The Prebisch-Singer hypothesis suggests that the terms of trade will change over time against primary goods and in favour of manufactured goods. In this context, terms of trade are generally considered to be in a downward trend for countries that produce and export primary goods. The aim of this study is to investigate the validity of the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis in the Turkish economy. Monthly data are used in the study and the data range covers the period between January 2002 and June 2024. RALS-LM unit root test, trend analysis and AARDL methods were used in the study. In the study, the analyses were applied in two sub-periods. According to the findings of the study, the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis is invalid for the period 2002-2012, but valid for the period 2013-2024. In other words, terms of trade in Turkey tends to deteriorate as of 2013-2024.