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New EU member states’ emigration: Projections for future and lessons for the new EU candidates Cover

New EU member states’ emigration: Projections for future and lessons for the new EU candidates

Open Access
|Dec 2020

Abstract

Unlike the old member states that compensate the negative net birth rate with immigration, the new EU member states face both migrational and natural demographic decline. In the last decade, poor level of economic development as well as the accession to the EU encouraged net emigration from the new member states. Panel data for the 12 new member states for the 2007 - 2016 period were used to determine how the length of membership and GDP per capita trailing behind the EU average affect the proportion of the net emigration. It has been shown that on average a country has to reach at least 85 percent of the average EU GDP p.c. (measured in PPS) to prevent emigration, but this level increases with each year of membership by 1.37 percentage points.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/zireb-2020-0017 | Journal eISSN: 1849-1162 | Journal ISSN: 1331-5609
Language: English
Page range: 129 - 140
Published on: Dec 12, 2020
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Publication frequency: 2 issues per year

© 2020 Iva Vuksanović Herceg, Tomislav Herceg, Lorena Škuflić, published by University of Zagreb, Faculty of Economics & Business
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License.