Probability Calculation of Upcoming Waves of COVID-19 in Poland

Arti, M.K.; Wiliński, Antoni

doi:10.2478/wsbjbf-2022-0003

Abstract

We present the problem of risk estimation/assessment of the new coronavirus (COVID-19) spread in Poland. In the literature, a method is given to explain the COVID-19 disease and try to predict the occurrence of the next wave of COVID-19. A Gaussian composite model is used in literature to identify COVID-19 disease. In this model, however, the prediction of the upcoming waves is dependent primarily on the set of selected samples. For different sets of samples, distinct timings of the upcoming waves are obtained. In this article, we assume that probability is associated with each set of samples, which are used for the prediction of the upcoming waves. By exploring this aspect, it is shown that a better prediction of the upcoming COVID-19 waves can be performed.

References

[1] https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019 [Accessed on May 12, 2021].
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
[2] P. Zhou et al. A pneumonia outbreak associated with a newcoronavirus of probable bat origin. Nature 579, pp. 270-273, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1038/s4158020-2012-7 Medline
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
[3] F. Wu et al. A new coronavirus associated with human respiratory disease in China. Nature 579, 265-269, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2008-3 Medline10.1038/s41586-020-2008-3
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
[4] A. E. Gorbalenya et al. Severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus: The species and its viruses- a statement of the Coronavirus Study Group. Nat. Microbiol. 2020. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41564-020-0695-z10.1038/s41564-020-0695-z
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
[5] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/poland/ [Accessed on January 2, 2022].
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
[6] https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations 2019 [Accessed on April 18, 2021].
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
[7] Harvey, W.T., Carabelli, A.M., Jackson, B. et al. SARS-CoV-2 variants, spike mutations and immune escape. Nat Rev Microbiol 19, 409-424 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41579-021-00573-010.1038/s41579-021-00573-0
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
[8] Arti, M. K. and Kushagra Bhatnagar, “Modeling and predictions for COVID-19 spread in India”, https://doi.org/10.13140RG.2.2.11427.81444 (2020)
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
[9] Manav R. Bhatnagar, “COVID19: Mathematical Modeling and Predictions,” Research Gate, DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.29541.96488, published on April 02, 2020.
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
[10] Mazurek, J. et al, Forecasting the number of total COVID-19 cases and deaths in the World, UK, Russia and Turkey by the Gompertz curve, May2020, DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.11336.88321
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
[11] Sinha, D. and Klahn, N, Mathematical Modeling Study of the 2020 COVID-19 Outbreak in the United States, SSRN Electronic Journal, Jan. 2020 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3573877
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
[12] Banerjee, S. Travelling and COVID-19: A Mathematical Model, April 2020 DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-26244/v1 LicenseCC BY 4.0
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
[13] Mazurek, J. and Nenikov, Z, Predicting the number of total COVID-19 cases in the USA by a Gompertz curve, April 2020, DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.19841.81761
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
[14] Koczkodaj, W.W et, 1000,000 patients of COVID-19 outside of China: The date predicted by a simple heuristic, Global Epidemiology (2020), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloepi.2020.10002310.1016/j.gloepi.2020.100023
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
[15] S. Roy and K. R. Bhattacharya, “Spread of COVID-19 in India: A Mathematical Model”, ResearchGate, DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.15878.52802, published on April, 2020.
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
[16] Manav R. Bhatnagar, Anubhav Bhatnagar and Supriti Bhatnagar “A Study of COVID19 with Limited Testing Kits,” ResearchGate, DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.29138.09923, published on April, 2020.
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
[17] Bhatia, V. and Mitra, R. Signal Processing based Predictor for COVID-19 Cases, April 2020 DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.23431.55201
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
[18] Manav R. Bhatnagar, “A Statistical Model for the Spread of COVID19 in Clusters,” ResearchGate, DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.18583.52644, published on April, 2020
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
[19] Antoni Wilinski, “COVID-19: Model for the spread of the epidemic in a given country allowing determining the phase of its advancement”, May 2021 DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.26951.42403 (Research Gate)
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
[20] Arti, M.K., A New Model and Relay Based Study for the Spread of COVID19, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/340947675
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
[21] Arti, M.K., Wilinski, A. Mathematical modeling and estimation for next wave of COVID-19 in Poland. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-021-02119-510.1007/s00477-021-02119-5
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
[22] Arti M.K., “Mathematical Modeling of COVID-19 and Prediction of Upcoming Wave,” in IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Signal Processing, doi: 10.1109/JSTSP.2022.3152674.
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
[23] Wilinski A., Kupracz Ł., Senejko A., Chrzastek G. COVID-19: average time from infection to death in Poland, USA, India and Germany. Quality & Quantity (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-022-01340-w10.1007/s11135-022-01340-w
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
[24] Wilinski A. Bach-Dabrowska I. (2022). COVID-19: Changes in the Ranking of Polish Regions According to the Criterion Taking into Account both the Reluctance to Vaccinate and the Number of Deaths. European Research Studies Journal, Volume XXV, Issue 1, 423-432, 202210.35808/ersj/2862
Search in Google Scholar Back to article

Probability Calculation of Upcoming Waves of COVID-19 in Poland

Abstract

Paradigm

My account