Langfrist-Projektionen in der ökonomischen Politikberatung: Eine Einordnung

Economic policy decisions often take decades to unfold, yet the future they are targeting is fundamentally uncertain. Long-term projections have become a core instrument of economic policy advice to address this tension – and are, at the same time, subject to persistent criticism. This article systematically assesses long-term projections by clarifying their epistemic status, outlining their analytical capabilities, and identifying their limitations. The main argument is that long-term projections make no claim to prognostic truth, yet constitute a scientifically legitimate and indispensable tool for the structured analysis of intertemporal relationships under uncertainty. Objections that are commonly raised largely rest on categorical misunderstandings or on institutional shortcomings in the advisory process – not on deficits inherent to the method.