Assessing the Impact of Algeria’s Trade Policies on Foreign Trade Dynamics

This paper examines how successive trade policy changes affected Algeria’s foreign trade dynamics from 1993 to 2025. Algeria moved through six distinct phases: from state monopoly over trade, through forced liberalization under IMF conditionality in 1994, an EU Association Agreement in 2005, a protectionist turn after 2014, and a current diversification strategy.

Despite these shifts, hydrocarbons consistently accounted for over 90% of total export revenues throughout the period. The trade balance tracked global oil prices with near-mechanical precision, while import restriction policies reduced GDP without generating domestic substitution. Non-hydrocarbon exports tripled between 2017 and 2023 to reach 5.1 billion dollars, but represent less than 10% of the total.

The paper draws on official trade statistics from the Algerian Directorate General of Customs, IMF reports, and peer-reviewed empirical literature. Findings confirm that trade policy has shaped import volumes more decisively than export composition, and that sustainable trade diversification requires broader institutional and productive capacity reforms beyond tariff management.